Stanislau Bahdankevich: “By the end of the year Belarus’ foreign debt to reach at least 15 bln”

In January-April 2008 balance of foreign trade in Belarus reached $1.5 bln. According to the head of the National Bank, it is just a beginning.

“The tendency of adverse balance in foreign trade became visible in Belarus back in 2006, and now it just continues to worsen,” told the former head of the National Bank of Belarus, economist Stanislau Bahdankevich to the Chater’97 press-center.

“Instead of fighting with huge expenses and energy consumption of our industry with the help of technical upgrading, nanotechnologies and real market competition, which could guarantee actual output growth and higher volume of Belarusian goods exports, the regime fights with arrival of consumer goods into the country. Their volume in the overall volume of trade is extremely, I would rather say, negligibly small,” the economist believes.

“Today it is above Belarus’ strength to carry out basic research; there is not enough money in the country doe that, and the top brains are working abroad. In Europe, the US and even in Russia now both the scientific research-and-development plant and conditions are much more attractive. That is why we are to implant international achievements into our economy rapidly, and not to try artificially supporting what we have by making minor modifications. Despite of the efforts of the government, the Belarusian industry still stays extremely energy-consuming while we are buying energy resourced in Russia, with which we have the largest minus in trade turnover,” Stanislau Bahdankevich said.

As a result, Belarus has the situation like this. If a few years ago the country’s cumulative foreign debt was $6 bln, and today it exceeds $13 bln, and there are all reasons to believe that by the end of the year it will reach at least $15 bln. “And this happens even though a huge subsidizing of the Belarusian economy by Russia is taking place now. If earlier we paid $40-50 when gas cost was $100-120, now we pay $120 while the gas cost is more than $300. It means that instead of previous $60 per 1000 cubic metres, this year we receive $200 of donations. However this doesn’t save the Belarusian economy. Moreover, we take loans from Russia to pay for energy resources. Thus not only the adverse balance of foreign trade, but the foreign debt grows as well,” the economist says.

And there is only one way out: global economic reforms, not a demagogy about them. No other way has been invented yet. “First of all, freedom of enterprise should be guaranteed, state control over the business limited, equal conditions for competition of private and state enterprises created. In the developed states the share of small and medium business in the country’s GDP reaches 70%, while in Belarus according to different information sources this index reaches only 10-15%. But at this point the economy is inseparable from the politics. A financially independent person wants to live in a free country,” Stanislau Bahdankevich believes.