Operation ”Compulsion” has begun

The Russian President came to Minsk for one evening – and with 440 million. But in exchange for what?

Vladimir Putin arrived late as usual, making his colleague wait in the airport in the evening 31 May. But afterwards Kremlin’s master spread compliments praising the Belarusian leadership for economic success and movement in the right direction.

The rich visitor came with financial support, which certainly is the most important. Putin announced that Belarus will be granted the third part of the stabilizing loan from the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC).

Moreover, the same day both parties initialed a general contract for the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power station. Rosatom chief Sergey Kirienko said that the agreement was reached regarding $204 mln investment into the first stage of the construction.

Moscow lingered with granting the third part of the EAEC loan of $440 mln since February, forcing Minsk to sharp its monetary and loan policies and privatization processes. As a matter of fact, there hasn’t been much success so far. In other words, Belarus got another advance. Is there an explanation to such generosity?

According to observers, Putin wanted his first official trip after coming back to Kremlin to go smoothly. Moreover, the Belarusian leadership’s loyalty towards Eurasian integration, Putin’s priority project, pays back. After the negotiations held on 31 May, Putin announced that the parties “agreed not to slow down the transition to a completely new level of integration – the Eurasian Economic Community”.

Lukashenka, in his turn, re-assured his colleague that there is no disagreement between Belarus and Russia in terms of establishment of the Eurasian Union.

What an idyll! However, Putin did make it clear that Moscow counts every cent. He emphasized that Russia’s recent financial support of Belarus has made about $5 bln. He also mentioned chip energy resources: while in 2011 Belarus paid about $ 280 per 1000 m3 of gas, in 2012 the price equals $ 165.5. Just so that the Belarusian leadership know who helped them out from the crisis.

“Right now a public confrontation is not in Russia’s interest. But this loan is one of the tools that Kremlin will use to make Minsk fulfill its obligations,” Yaugen Preygerman, head of study of the Liberal Club (Minsk) said.

Just recently the official Minsk has proudly reported that Putin would spend two whole days in Minsk. What an honor! In reality the visit took not more than one evening. On 1 June Putin is having breakfast with Angela Merkel in Berlin, and dining with François Hollande in Paris.

Putin and Lukashenka mentioned occasional disputes briefly and vaguely. Thus, establishment of the holding RosBelAvto on the basis of KamAZ and MAZ was discussed, as they put it. “I am positive that if we reach an agreement, it will be an excellent example for other branches of the economy,” Putin made a short remark. In other word, the agreement hasn’t been reached.

Analysts assume that after the pomposity of the recent visit harsh times will begin for the allies. And Moscow will start pressing. These assumptions are not groundless: the Belarusian model functions mostly due to Russia’s financial support, while Lukashenka’s relations with the West couldn’t be worse, so there is no way to avoid pressure.

”I don’t think Russia is ready to go far to keep Belarus in its orbit, while Belarus is ready to do what it takes to please Moscow,” Andrei Fiodarau, an international analyst from Minsk, said. He assumes that in future “flies will be separates from cutlets” once again.

Interfax reported about an interesting episode from the talks. When Putin saw Andrei Kabiakou, former Vice Prime Minister of Belarus and presently Belarus’ Ambassador to Russia, he made a joke: “I’ve lost so much blood to this blood-sucker, and you sent him to Moscow to drink what is left.”

There is a grain of truth in every joke. What Putin said shows the difference between the showcase and the backyard of Minsk-Moscow relationships. Under the mask of blood relatives, the allies have had lots of conflicts. And there will come more.