The dollar may rise up to 13-15 thousand BYR
12:01, — Economics
Belarus will not avoid the negative consequences in the monetary sphere in case of deep crisis of Eurozone.
This is an opinion of the economist Leonid Zheltonoga, Chair, of the department of “organization and analysis of business processes" of Belarusian National Technical University.
According to his opinion, three variants of developing of the Eurozone crisis are possible. Including the one, that leads to the disappearance of euro. All these scenarios, however, will directly influence Belarusian economy. They may become a push to devaluation processes and the reduction of business activity.
“The situation on Belarusian financial market depends from the situation in the Eurozone. Today one can consider three scenarios of developing of events – catastrophic, intermediate, and optimistic. However, all of them have negative moments for Belarus: these are devaluation of the national currency, capital outflow, low investment activity, and, as a consequence, production decline in the real sector”, - informed L.Zheltonoga in his conversation with a reporter of the agency “Interfax-West”.
According to his words, “the catastrophic scenario” for the Eurozone assumes that euro will disappear as a currency.
“The consequences of this scenario are unpredictable. Russia holds about 200 billion of its reserves in euro, about 30% of Chinese reserves are also represented in euro. Besides, China has active trade relations with Europe, and, naturally, the crisis in the old world will strike on Chinese and world economy”, - noted the scientist.
He paid attention that both China and Russia are today the main economic and investment partners of Belarus.
According to the words of the agency’s interlocutor, another collapse of Belarusian ruble will happen in the worst scenario. “There will be a serious challenge for the economy. Dollar against the Russian ruble could rise to 50 rub/$. It is possible that we will have to pay 13000-15000 BYR for one dollar”, - said the scientist.
The second scenario is connected with the salvation of euro, occasionally broken by instability. In this scenario European economy will be in recession, noted L.Zheltonoga.
“The third scenario is an optimistic one. Situation in the Eurozone will be completely stabilized. The likelihood of this is small, although ECB and other world central banks are making incredible efforts to realize it”, - said the scientist.
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