Edward Lucas: We need sanctions against top people of Lukashenka

Belarusian top peoples cannot shop in London and have their children studying in the West.

A famous journalist, the editor of the international department of an influention British magazine The Economist Edward Lucas gave an interview to the charter97.org web-site.

– In your latest interview you said that Putin’s days were counted. What do you think of Lukashenka in this regards? Does his time also pass?

– Yes, I think we have seen slow maturing of Belarusian society and the big card Lukashenka had to pay was stability and I think there is a new generation of Belarusians grown up who are keen on change and less worried about stability. I think in a way the stability that Lukashenka promised just turned into stagnation. So I think there is a very deep and not really political change in society which is bad for Lukashenka and you can almost say that Belarus is getting over its Soviet past and getting over its post-Soviet tumor. And in a way it is becoming a bit more of a normal country. And Lukashenka is an abnormal leader and I do not think an abnormal leader can survive a normal country.

– What should the European Union’s strategy towards Lukashenka be?

– Really difficult, really difficult. We have try everything. We have tried sanctions, we have tried being nice, we have tried being nasty, we have tried ignoring him. And I think the things to do is to concentrate on the deepest possible engagement with the Belarusian people so we should be opening Europe to civil society, students, tourism just really try to make Belarus feel it is part of Europe. And make Lukashenka into an irrelevance. I do not think that the sanctions really work. I think they feed the Lukashenka narrative of “they do not need us”. And this is very bad. And I think that simply giving him money does not work, we tried that with Radek Sikorski’s offer. So I think we have been very patient, very determined, generous and open and then let time work its effect.

– An old-new initiative of the European Union is being implemented of trying to have a dialogue with Lukashenka.

– I think you can open up a very pragmatic dialogue with officials at the middle level. And if you want to talk pharmacists talking to pharmacists or, you know, nature conservancy talking to nature conservancy or, you know, aviation enthusiasts talking to aviation enthusiasts, that is fine.  I am skeptical about having a high level dialogue. I do not think Lukashenka really wants it and he will just use it to sort of gain a little bit of legitimacy. We have to make him look abnormal and irrelevant. It is difficult and the EU runs on a different political cycle: something didn't work last month let's find something next month. They work on a kind of quick political cycle and the changes in Belarus are measured in years, within a five year or ten year cycle, so it is difficult. What I would say, I think we could still do more with Magnitsky list type sanctions against top people of Lukashenka. They has money in the West - let's freeze it, they travel to the West - let's stop them: they cannot shop in the West, they can't get to school in the West, they cannot send their wives and their mistresses to the West.