Belarusian business expects devaluation

Devaluation sentiment has grown among Belarusian businesses.

It prevails in industry and construction, Ezhednevnik reports.

According to the data from National Bank’s poll, in which 1937 enterprises took part, in April 2014 a drop in the number of operations in foreign currency by Belarusian economic agents was registered. They started buying and selling it less.

Thus, in April 2014 37.8% of the respondents did not operate with foreign currencies, while in March the figure was 38.9%. The drop is insignificant, but it falls into the constant dynamics, lasting since January.

According to the National Bank, this has to do with the fact that the rouble exchange rate’s influence on the economic activities of Belarusian enterprises weakened, which finds confirmation with the poll participants.

The weakest influence of the rouble’s exchange rate on business was indicated at the enterprises of the construction field, where it dropped, compared to March, nearly twice, and also in the transport industry.

However, despite the positive changes, the National Bank observes increased devaluation sentiment among businesses. Thus, in April 16.3% pointed at the advisability of the devaluation of the Belarusian rouble against 15.3% in March. At the same time decreased the share of those, who stands for strengthening the rouble – 16.8% in April against 17.1% in March. Drop did, as well, the share of those, who stands for the stability of the exchange rate – 66.8% against 67.8% in March.

It is notable that these are the construction field and industry that want the lowering of the exchange rate, which indicate the growth of the stockpile and unfinished real estate facilities. This indicates that these branches seek to solve their problems by the devaluation of the rouble.

It is curious that the increased devaluation sentiment among Belarusian businesses has been growing through 2014. At the same time business sees fluctuating exchange rates as one of the main risks together with the change in demand, price, interest rates, insolvency or bankruptcy of contracting parties.