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Roman Bezsmertnyi: Putin prepares for spring offensive

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Roman Bezsmertnyi: Putin prepares for spring offensive

The Russian president visits the talks in Milan with the only aim of playing for time.

The main advantage of the upcoming talks in Milan is that we overcame the format of the Minsk meetings. The fact that Ukraine chose Minsk to discuss our problems created many problems both in Europe and the entire democratic world, Roman Bezsmertnyi writes on his blog on Novoye Vremya website. Roman Bezsmertnyi is a former Ukraine's Ambassador to Belarus (2010-2011), Maidan camp leader during the Orange Revolution, deputy PM in Yuliya Tymoshenko's government, head of the the Third Ukrainian Republic party.

We have come to an understanding of what diplomats were talking from the very beginning: the conglomerate of criminal groups that seized a part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions cannot be a side in any talks. The command centre of terrorists is in the Kremlin, the fact known to everyone. This is the centre we should talk to. There is no sense in talking to others.

Unfortunately, due to the war instigated in the Donbas region, Moscow managed to achieve its last year's plans: to become the third side in the talks between Ukraine and the EU. We should not forget about it. Thinking about how it happened, let's recall the Kremlin's theses during Yanukovych's presidency and look how it achieved the participation in the negotiations.

Another important point concerns what we can gain at the talks in Milan. We need to understand that global arrangements, expect for technological procedures to secure the truce, cannot be reached now. It is obvious that neither the Russian side nor the conglomerate of separatists are not going to implement the Minsk agreements reached at the previous talks. It will be a success if Ukraine manages to propose a technology to secure the truce.

Putin and Medvedev's recent statements show that they will arrive in Milan without mechanisms of securing the truce and even elementary readiness to work in this direction. One can listen to their categorical remarks about Ukraine, the EU and the EU to understand it.

I think this position of the Russian side can be explained by the fact that the Kremlin considers the Minsk agreements to be a fragmentary truce and prepares to continue its offensive in spring. There's one thing that I cannot understand: whether the warfare will be directed against Ukraine, or Russia will target other territories, too. Judging by Moscow's rhetoric, new tension centres are likely to appear and the threats like “don't press on us, otherwise it will be worse” show that the Russian authorities have clear plans to escalate the situation rather than develop the truce into peace.

I think Russia visits Milan with the only aim of playing for time. It can be proved by the behavior of separatists, repression against the Crimean Tatars and actions by the self-proclaimed Crimean authorities. I don't even mention the statements by Russian MPs about the Baltic and Caucasian countries. It confirms the Kremlin's intention to establish a new lodgement to escalate the conflict.

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