Vakhtang Kipiani: Ukrainian politicians don't notice danger coming from Belarus

Belarus can become a lodgment for Russia's further aggression against Ukraine.

Charter97.org learnt it from Vakhtang Kipiani, a Ukrainian journalist, editor-in-chief of Vladometr and Historical Truth projects.

– The Ukrainian Central Election Commission has counted more than half of the votes. The results of the election seem to be clear. What came as a surprise for you?

– The main sensation of the early election to the Verkhovna Rada is the victory of Arseniy Yatsenyuk's People's Front. The party, that wasn't so popular and had a rating of 5-6%, received far more votes than Petro Poroshenko's bloc. High results of Self Reliance was also a big surprise. The party will have a large group of 30 or more people. This is an excellent result for, in fact, a regional political party that succeeded due to the image of Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi and good party lists consisting of activists, journalists and so on. We haven't seen it before.

Of course, the fact that the Communist Party failed to enter the parliament is important. Many were dreaming about it, but it was impossible until recently. It happened because we lost the donor regions – Crimea and Donbas. The Party of Regions, or to be more precise, its reincarnation the Opposition Bloc, has only 10% (against 30% in the previous election). Populist Oleh Lyashko showed good results. He has a mixed team of businessmen, activists and army commanders. He will give the parliament a hard time, because his style is clownery. The [ruling] coalition is unlikely to cooperate with him, so he will be in the opposition.

– Svoboda, one of the main Maidan's forces, has shown unexpected results, though all opinion polls forecast it would overcome the 5% barrier.

– Two years ago, Svoboda won a lot of parliamentary seats on the wave of resisting the Yanukovych regime. Many voted for it, saying: “We are not nationalists. We vote for Svooda, because it is the only party able to rebuff the Party of Regions.” It's rough, but it really happened that way. They made one or two symbolic gestures in that direction in the parliament and then became a part of the parliamentary system. They didn't differ much from the rest. So, hopes of many people who counted on them didn't come true. On the other hand, Svoboda was involved in a number of corruption scandals. Opposition parties cannot find money for advertising, also for TV ads, that Svoboda had. Mistrust was growing. There also were media scandals. The party was said to receive money from criminal sources. In the 1990s, party members had links to people involved in criminal activities. Party members worked for government bodies – mayor's offices, administration, ministries.

Another reason is the Maidan protests. They raised radical moods of society. Svoboda with its radicalism was one of many forces. Yes, it took part in the Maidan protests, its activists were among leaders, many of them died. No one dares say they did something wrong. Society has become more radical. They stopped being the only carrier of radical ideas.

– Representatives of Poroshenko's bloc and the People's Front said just after the closure of polling stations they would form a coalition. Will it consist just of these two political forces. Or will it include more parties?

– I think the authorities will try to create a broad coalition to have more or less serious support in the parliament. Both the People's Front and Poroshenko's bloc are missing parties. They include various people – idealists, activists, corporate raiders, corrupted officials, former members of the Party of Regions, two of every kind. They don't seem to demonstrate unanimous consent during voting. They will have to work with Self Reliance and members elected from from first-past-the-post constituencies. I think the coalition will be broader than just two parties. It's clear the People's Front has the moral right to the key government posts – prime minister, interior minister, minister of finance.

– The new Ukrainian authorities began to establish contacts with dictator Lukashenka, Putin's closest ally, after Maidan's victory. Will the policy change after the election?

– Though we are neighours, the theme of Belarus at this election and in general is, unfortunately, a marginal issue for Ukrainian policy. I cannot say there is a number of Ukrainians that find it interesting. Many people think Belarusians have a good happy life and Lukashenka is a good manager. Polls show that he even has some support. I don't have friends who share these views. By and large, we know nothing about Belarus. So, there's a danger. Belarus is an ally of the Russian Federation. Russian troops, also wearing Belarusian uniform, are deployed in Belarus. It can become a lodgment for attacking Ukraine. It is really dangerous. I see it as a journalist. Politicians are not interested in the issue.