Belarusians began to withdraw ruble deposits

It's not a trend yet, but depositors apparently began to lose their nerves.

If more people begin to convert their ruble deposits to dollar ones, banks may raise interest rates in deposits in the national currency, analysts think.

A journalist of Belorusskie Novosti visited several banks in the centre of Minsk. One of them had a queue of more than 20 people for deposit operations. A queue of 100 people was seen in the second bank, but the third had no queues.

“All have already exchanged their rubles for dollars,” says a woman, who came to change her deposit currency. She says she doesn't expect a devaluation of the Belarusian ruble soon because the government is unlikely to take this measure ahead of the presidential election. “But I want to play it self,” the woman says.

The website sent requests to a number of big banks – Belarusbank, BPS-Sberbank and Belagroprombank – to figure out the situation, but hasn't received replies.

Aliaksandr Mukha, an analyst at BusinessForecast research group, explains the behaviour of Belarusian depositors with the aggravation of geopolitical tension in the region and higher devaluation expectations caused by the sharp fall of the Russian ruble against main foreign currencies.

The dollar cost 80 Russian rubles in trading on December 16. The price of the US currency dropped to 65 Russian rubles yesterday. The dollar cost 33 Russian rubles at the beginning of the year.

“Panic has been spreading among people every year ahead of New Year's Day since 2009. It is called the 'January 2 effect'. It is aggravated by the situation in Russia. Rumours are circulating that a sharp devaluation of the Belarusian ruble is inevitable. People tend to believe the rumours, so they try to convert their ruble deposits into dollar ones,” Vadzim Iosub, a financial analyst of the official partner of Alpari in Minsk, explains.

Aliaksandr Mukha doesn't call the behaviour of Belarusian depositors a trend, but suggests that some clients of Belarusian banks began to lose their nerves.

“It's clear that risks increased due to the fall of the Russian ruble, but medium-sized and big deposit holders try to analyse the situation carefully. They try to understand what would be better: to lose the interest rate or to wait for the maturity date,” the analyst notes.

If people continue to convert ruble deposits into dollar ones, it will influence the exchange rate. To prevent it, the National Bank and other bank will raise interest rates in ruble-denominated deposits.