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Belarus Became Champion in Devaluation. What to Happen to Ruble Next?

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Belarus Became Champion in Devaluation. What to Happen to Ruble Next?

Further devaluation of Belarusian ruble is inevitable.

Our country has become a champion in devaluation among the CIS countries. As informed by BelaPAN, since the beginning of the year the Belarusian ruble lost most value as compared to the rest of the post-Soviet countries.

Why the currency of Belarus turned out to be the weakest among the neighbouring countries, and what are experts’ immediate forecasts?

It’s a military situation without a war. This year the Belarusian ruble has left behind even Ukraine’s hryvnia in terms of the level of devaluation, Belsat informs.

Since January 1 the Belarusian ruble has been down against the dollar by half. The monetary unit of the war-torn southern neighbour lost just one third of its value. The former chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich notes: if by the end of the year the banking regulator would be able to maintain the quantity of money in the economy on the same level, the “exchange rate would not exceed Br 18,000 per dollar. If this limit would not be maintained, the exchange rate could be even Br 20,000.”

However, many former post-Soviet countries have faced devaluation this year. It particularly concerned the oil exporting countries. The Russian ruble has dropped by 16%, Azerbajani manat has dropped by one third, and Kazakhstan tenge almost by half. The leader of Kazakhstan blames the world crisis for this process.

Nursultan Nazarbayev, the president of Kazakhstan, said: “Since the beginning of this year deterioration of the global economic conditions is observed in the world market in general.”

Bur experts state that the world crisis is nothing but a myth, created by propaganda of post-Soviet totalitarian regimes. The economy of a communist, but more market China, is to grow by 7% this year, despite the recent disasters. The Eurozone shows the best results of economic growth since 2011, and the US note the lowest unemployment rate in history. In reality, oil-exporting countries are suffering from their own overproduction of hydrocarbons, and the reason of the Belarusian devaluation is partially an internal one, and namely, money emission.

Stanislau Bahdankevich, ex-chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, notes: “The annual volume of ruble expansion has been already exceeded. And it has caused a slump of the currency exchange rate last month.”

Experts note that narrowing of the Russian market for Belarusian exports was compensated by a low price of Russian oil and gas, and by contraband income from trafficking Russian oil products to the West and European goods to the East. That is why the trade deficit this year is less than last year, and it means that less foreign currency is flowing away from the country.

Stanislau Bahdankevich notes: though the balance of trade has improved, further weakening of the Belarusian ruble is inevitable, as the economic system, supported by the powers that be, cannot exist without money emission long.

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