Belarus and war of the worlds today

According to many observers, the theme of the "Russian world" has practically disappeared from the lexicon of the Kremlin's propaganda mouthpieces.

Indeed, Putin's project Novorossiya was lulled to sleep through Ukrainian and European resistance, which, being so strong, became a big surprise to the Kremlin.

Experts point out that the "Russian world" topic is no longer discussed by the large foreign media. A close ally of the Kremlin, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, called this world a "propaganda nonsense." However, its messengers turned out not only in Ukraine.

Today, all are showing zeal in discussing the war in Syria, of which Russia became an active and direct participant. It did so on the side of the Shiites, of whom there are somewhere around 10 percent in the Muslim world, while the majority, including the Russian Muslims, are Sunnis. It should also be recalled that the EU, NATO and the Arab League are on the list which was made public by the US State Department at some point and has the states that had joined the coalition against the ISIS.

Despite Russia's participation in the Paris conference on the fight against the ISIS, it was not on the list published in Washington. However, there was no sign of Belarus either. As we know, Moscow went its own way, creating a coalition with Iran and part of Syria remaining under Assad's authority. Recently there was information about Iraq possibly appealing to Russia for help with fighting ISIS terrorists. However, at the same time it was reminded of the US role in shaping the current Iraqi government, which casts serious doubts on such appeals for help. After all, majority of the Arab countries are still in the so-called Grand Alliance against ISIS, which rejects Assad. It means that the advocates of the "Russian world" actually turned out to be on the opposite sides with the Arab world in the region flared in Sunni-Shiite war.

Interestingly, among the nearly 60 participants of the Grand Alliance can be found not only distant Taiwan and South Korea, but also former Soviet republics such as Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. There is currently no information on the possible involvement of other post-Soviet states in the Alliance. There is no clear and complete understanding of the further actions of the CSTO member states, of which Belarus is also an active member, regarding the war developments in Syria. For some time now, this military-political organization has had for its members a NATO-musketeer principle: one for all and all for one. Officials and commentators of this principle for the Collective Security Treaty Organization explain that it takes effect in the event of not only foreign aggression, but also in case of the fight against terrorism. Here it is necessary to emphasize that the draft agreement on the Russian air base in Belarus provides for "countering armed attacks by international terrorist groups." It is known that ISIS is in fact considered such a formation and is officially banned in Russia. Apparently, it is also a threat to the Belarusian part of the so-called union state.

According to the Kremlin, in order to ward off the threat from the Russian territory, Putin decided to destroy the ISIS hydra in her den. So far, it has been done using the Air Force and Navy missiles, shot from the Caspian Sea into the Syrian territory. Putin is cleaning up all the places where all the enemies of President Bashar al-Assad dug in. And in the future, as is more and more often said by the media, Russian special forces may be sent to Syria, as well as volunteers for $50 per combat day. They will be mercenaries like those in Donbas and may include not only citizens of the Russian Federation, but also people from the Belarusian part of the union state.

Such plans have already been discussed in the Russian State Duma, which would not stop chewing over the failure of the Novorossiaya plan often referred to now as the replacement of Donetsk with Damascus. They remembered that Syria is the cradle of the Christian world. But in the western part of this world Moscow had a misfire. The Christian Europe preferred the Grand Alliance to combat terrorism under the auspices of the US, not Russia.

Incidentally, the recent revelations of the Belarusian ruler that "in fact, we are not alone here standing against NATO, but together with the Russian Federation. We have a specific plan, even in case of war" sounded "funny". It means that the official Minsk has no membership among the NATO members in the war of the worlds generated by the Grand Alliance.

Judging by some of the vocal arguments of some arch-strategists based in Minsk, Belarus in this situation should adhere to the policy of pragmatism, and even national selfishness. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry likes calling this approach the multi-vector one. In short, it means to make money with anyone, wherever possible.

It is worth recalling how during the fourth year of the civil war in Syria, in Damascus, in February 2015, unexpectedly turned up with a visit the Foreign Minister of Belarus Uladzimir Makei. The visit was followed by his statement promising prospects for the Belarus-Syria relations. The minister pointed out that there is a list of specific projects to be discussed at the "earliest" meeting of the Joint Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation to be held in Minsk.

Obviously, he also meant a military-technical cooperation, the price of which greatly increases during the war. It was also said that in the "near" future a Belarus-Syria summit could be held. It was not said where exactly. According to the Minister Makei, he handed the President of Syria a personal letter from Lukashenka. This topic has not been raised either by Minsk or Damascus ever since.

The same was true about the fact that almost immediately after the start of the war in Syria, its ambassador in Minsk joined the opposition of President Assad. And after Putin's falcons appeared in the Syrian sky, Makei decided to meet with the successor of the escaped ambassador. Maybe it happened, because Minsk is lacking reliable information from the Belarusian embassy in Damascus and its Russian allies. Some meticulous observers saw a meaningful connection between Makei's meeting with the Syrian ambassador and the unexpected statements made by Lukashenka about the Russian air base to "counter armed attacks by international terrorist groups," which, as it turned out, his country does not need. Now everyone is waiting for a response from the Kremlin, which is still thinking and dreaming about this airbase. How long it will last nobody knows. But, as always, very few people doubt it except Putin.

Now that Putin's politics have turned the world upside down, Minsk-based geostrategists with partners in the Middle East find it more difficult and risky to conduct their business. Indeed, among the partners of Belarus are now not only war-torn Syria and its ally Iran, but also hostile to them Arab monarchies. It is worth noting that among the important partners of the Belarusian regime is listed State of Qatar -- a solid investor of the regime and one of the main sponsors of the President Bashar al-Assad opponents. In addition, due to the Putin's support of Assad, Qatar continues to be an implacable enemy of Moscow. Experts assure, this is what prompted the Qatari emirs to provide timely and real help to Lukashenka in the scandal with Uralkali. Without it, the actions of Minsk which is dependent on the Russian side in distributing potash products would not be so effective. Being successful then, the partners started developing other areas of cooperation. According to some reports, they also cooperate in the military-technical sphere.

Some experts assume that this area could be the origin of the informal information about the appearance of the Belarusian weapons in the hands of the Syrian opposition. But others believe it should be perceived as an act in the information war waged by Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, France, the UK and the US against Moscow. It turns out that the Belarusian ally of Russia ended up in this frame.

It should be recalled that out of the list of Bashar Assad's enemies, Minsk has diplomatic missions of all countries except the Arab monarchies. Among them is the new ambassador of Turkey, with whom recently personally met the Deputy Head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry Alena Kupchyna. The official statement about the meeting said nothing about Syria.

But it is easy to assume that with the latest threatening statements of Ankara against Moscow over its conduct in Syria, this topic could be the main one between the two interviewees. As in the case of Uladzimir Makei's meeting with the Syrian ambassador, again we have to assume that Minsk still does not have sufficient information about the future plans of the Kremlin in the war of the worlds in the Middle East. Perhaps it is also true about other regions of Eurasia. So the globe continues to spin not only in the office of the Belarusian, but also the Kremlin leader.

Roman Yakovlevsky, political commentator, specially for charter97.org