19 March 2024, Tuesday, 14:26
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

Zmitser Bandarenka: Radical Changes Can Happen In Belarus In 2016

11
Zmitser Bandarenka: Radical Changes Can Happen In Belarus In 2016
Zmitser Bandarenka

The economic collapse can lead to public protests.

It was said in the interview to the TV channel “Belsat” by a coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Zmitser Bandarenka.

– Lukashenka went to Moscow for the second time this month. Experts believe that the topics of the Russian air base in Belarus and a loan of $ 2 billion which he wants to get are closely related. But last time Lukashenka drew a blank Do you think he wants to use an air base for bargaining?

– In fact, we know nothing. Perhaps the decision was made earlier. For example, I knew that “Beltransgaz” would be sold in May 2011 as early as back in 2010, already after the elections, because I was serving time with people who told me about it. While the journalists out of the prison did not know about that.

Perhaps the decision on the air base has already been taken. After all, Dmitry Medvedev gave the contract for signature to President Vladimir Putin not without reason.

– But there is no money for the credit. Does it mean that Lukashenka cannot get from Russia anything by bargaining anymore?

– We do not know details: it is possible that he owes Putin and Russia fivefold already. It is confidential information. It is clear that Putin shows disrespect to Lukashenka – “know your place.” It could be said for sure.

– Some experts claim that Moscow does not view Belarus as an equal partner anymore, and that Lukashenka has destroyed an opportunity “to ride on the sea-saw” between Moscow and Brussels himself. Is it so?

– Putin does not have room for manoeuvre now, as prices for oil could be even lower than $30 a barrel.

Imagine: a husband wanted to buy a fur coat to his wife, or promised a holiday at the sea, but could not offer that because of the financial crisis. And then a neighbour comes and says: lend me some money for a bottle, once again. And it is clear that he won’t return the money ever. The situation could be the following: “It is nothing to speak of, dear Aliaksandr – neither I nor you have money – why do you come? Just solve this difficulty yourself.”

– You say that there is no exact information. Why do they hold it back?

– Because Putin and Lukashenka cannot say frankly to the people: “Save yourselves, next year the situation will make you recall the years 1990 and 1989 as better years.”

Experts say that today's oil price of $ 37 is lower than it was in the late 1980s. Therefore, the situation is very serious, but the “brothers-dictators” cannot tell people that. So they puff out their chests and try to pretend that they govern the process. And in my opinion, they do not govern it any more.

– Returning to the issue of the airbase: it was officially stated that the topic had not been discussed in Moscow. That is, there is no formal decision for today yet. Which option do you think would suit the Kremlin? For how long will it wait?

– This is related to the situation in Syria. Because Putin has got into the Middle East with one aim: to raise the price of oil. And the expenses of the Russian budget for this operation are enormous. But nothing worked out: the price of oil went down even more drastically. And it may be a situation when Russia has more important things to care about than the air base and Lukashenka.

We have seen how the budget was discussed: this year it has been reduced by 10% and there are talks that in the next year it will also have to be reduced. As long as the cost of “defense” or, more precisely, of the attack have grown at times in Russia – it means costs for pensions, for medicine, for the construction and so on will be reduced.

Lukashenka wants to think that he is very important for Russia, but in fact they are having just a terrible situation now: they have to save their Far East and the North, where the products are delivered for a month in advance.

– But it turns out that for us this situation is profitable. We go “into the shadows” and can solve our problems...

– I wouldn’t use the word “we” in relation to Lukashenka and myself, because he is a dictator, and I am a Belarusian citizen, representing the opposition. He definitely feels bad now, and the situation may change very radically in Belarus in 2016.

– What can it be: public protests or the collapse of the economy?

– The collapse of the economy has already happened and it will continue. The bottom has not been tested yet, as they say. Of course, there will be protests. Today a Belarusian pensioner gets 90-150 dollars, but prices are higher than in Poland, Slovakia and Lithuania, where the pensions are many times higher.

– But pensioners will not go to protest...

–Even pensioners with crutches can go to protest. And then a game in the so-called “robbing Peter to pay Paul” starts. It was in Poland in 1989, and it was during the “perestroika”: if you want to help pensioners – you have to give them money, teachers protest– now you have to give money to them, factories have “frozen” – money has to be given there. The flywheel of inflation spins, and the situation cannot be saved.

So that is my prediction: 2016 will be bad for Lukashenka and will create a dynamic situation for changes, including the political ones, in Belarus.

– You have remembered about pensioners, and just in a week, on January 1, sole traders of Belarus will not be able to continue their work. Should we wait for their protests?

– Of course. Around 500 thousand people are involved in this sector of the economy. Instead of paying taxes (and there was a time when taxes of sole traders amounted to 45-50% in the Minsk budget), they will be forced to go with a hat in hand.

It's just idiocity on the part of the present government. Even in the past times they had the grace not to touch tradesmen: people survive, not asking for anything from the state – and that’s good. But today they want to control everything – so they would have to be answerable to sole traders, and to pensioners and to workers.

– On the eve of the anniversary of the brutal events of December 19, 2010, politicians Niakliayeu, Statkevich, Shushkevich put forward an initiative on holding the Congress of Democratic Forces of Belarus. Do you support this initiative?

– First, the initiative was put forward by representatives of intellectuals, and after that by the abovementioned politicians. I support it. I support it, because there is the factor of Stanislau Shushkevich, a world renowned man, who has great political weight. And there is the factor of Mikalai Statkevich, who has now become a real leader, with whom democratic activists of Belarus have pinned their hopes on changes.

– Will these two factors work only among the opposition or amogn the whole society?

– They will work among both the opposition, and the society, because the society will look for someone who can save the situation and lead the protests. And it will work outside of our country, because these people have credit and respect.

Write your comment 11

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts