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Natallia Radzina: Ukrainians underestimate threat of Lukashenka

Natallia Radzina: Ukrainians underestimate threat of Lukashenka
Photo: EPA

Ukraine needs a serious information policy towards Belarus.

This is what Chief Editor of charter97.org Natallia Radzina said in an interview with Ukraine-based Gordonua.com. According to her, the promises of Aliaksandr Lukashenka cannot be trusted -- he is completely dependent on the Kremlin.

- How, in your opinion, Belarus may be dangerous for the Ukrainian politics and society?

- This is an example of a country where human rights are violated, it is a dictatorship and has a planned economy. Surprisingly, the Ukrainian media portray Belarus as an economic miracle, and Ukrainians are sure Belarus is a paradise on earth. Ukrainians, in fact, know nothing about the life of the neighboring state. They do not realize that there unreformed Belarusian economy exists solely on Russian subsidies, loans, cheap oil and gas. In addition, Ukrainians do not know that in Belarus happen heinous crimes against humanity, leaders of the opposition are murdered, the country has no freedom of speech or freedom of assembly.

There is no important understanding that Belarus is quite hostile towards the Ukrainian state. According to sociologists, 60% of Belarusians support the actions of Russia in Donbas and Crimea. This is because the media space of the republic has only Russian TV channels. Aliaksandr Lukashenka stifled all independent media, so there is no alternative information. And the Belarusian propaganda is not much different from the Russian one. For example, in Belarus, the events of Euromaidan are exclusively called "coup d'etat". Belarusian media have adopted all the rhetoric of Russia. Of course, the degree of anti-Ukrainian discourse is smaller, but the essence remains the same.

This situation, in my opinion, is extremely dangerous for Ukraine. After all, if the number of Belarusians supporting the actions of Russia in Donbas and Crimea, reaches the Russian level, Ukraine will have another thousand kilometers of front in the north. And, most importantly, it will be the front with Russia, because, believe me, no one will ask Lukashenka whether to deploy troops in the country or not.

- But legally Belarus is an independent state. Another thing is whether its policies are really independent.

- Do not forget that Belarus is member of the "union state" with Russia. What independence can we talk about? Yes, the de jure it has a status of a separate state. But de facto Belarus is a Russian region. It can be easily compared with Crimea, which is now occupied. Lukashenka is only pretending that he is a brilliant ruler. In fact, he is not an independent politician. There is an absolute economic dependence - in energy, militarily (the country, in fact, is a foothold in Russia, it has joint air defense system with Russia), the law enforcement bodies are closely linked (constantly held are joint boards of the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Defense). Therefore, talk about Belarus' independence is simply ridiculous.

- If we assess the situation in general, how likely is it that Putin will use such convenient ground as Belarus?

- This can happen at any time. That is why Putin is supporting the absolutely pro-Russian regime of Lukashenka.

Ukraine urgently needs to strengthen the border with Belarus, because there constantly appears information about the actions of the Russian military in the border region. For example, there are pictures of people in the Russian military uniform, but without insignia (without shoulder straps and chevrons). In a conversation with the locals of the Homiel region, they openly admitted that they are Russian military. When asked what they were doing there, they quietly replied: "getting ready for war".

I then spoke with the Ukrainian military from the General Staff , asked their opinion on the matter. I was told that the Russians were most likely carrying out a reconnaissance of the area for crossing the border from the north. It turns out that the military threat from Belarus is absolutely obvious.

The General Staff assured me that they understand the level of danger, but noted that, unfortunately, the Ukrainian authorities do not fully realize it.

Politicians prefer not to go into details. And we see it in their actions. President Poroshenko never spoke about Belarus being a dangerous neighbor. Instead, he prefers to meet with Lukashenka, lobbies his interests in the West - it is a de facto recognition of and support for the regime.

Belarus has two of Russia's radio-location stations and soon will have a fully Russian military base. Ukrainian media like to say that Lukashenka will not allow its construction, that he will balk (he himself has said it a number of times), but for some reason no one noticed that Belarus Minister of Defense said that the country does not really need a military base, but just missiles able to cover the four NATO bases in Poland. Now think what is more dangerous for the West and Ukraine - missiles or an air base?

- Most recently the EU suspended the sanctions against Belarus. Does Europe believe that Lukashenka has gone straight?

- After Russia imposed sanctions on European food products, many countries had problems with sales. Lukashenka helped to solve them. Products were exported to Belarus, the labels were changed and more goods were sent to Russia as "made in Belarus". This is how Belarusian oysters and salmon appeared (by the way, the same routine is used for Ukrainian confectionery getting into Russia). For many politicians in the EU it was very important. We see the result - easing of the Western policy towards Lukashenka regime. Sanctions were lifted against him and his officials, an IMF loan is possible. In my opinion, this is an actual surrender of democratic principles.

Of course, we are grateful for the support of Western partners. But we must recognize that today it is not enough. Change in the situation inside the country requires a serious interest. I do not see it. In the West, there is also plenty of corruption and red tape. The most important thing for them is for Belarus to be "stable." But we understand that there are no stable dictators.

- You have repeatedly said that you believe in the possibility of regime change in Belarus. Why such confidence while many Belarusians say they would have been happy to vote for someone else, but did not see any alternative?

- Nothing can be solved in Belarus through elections. They are easily falsified by the Lukashenka's team.

- Then how can a change of regime occur?

- The same way as it did in Ukraine. Why do you think that it is impossible in Belarus? Certainly, the Belarusian society today is in a more serious condition than Ukrainians on the eve of the Maidan. It was easier to gather people at the Maidan even in times of Yanukovych than it is to bring people to the protests in Belarus now, where the dictatorship has total control abd has completely destroyed the independent media and political parties. Political parties are required to submit to the Ministry of Justice lists of its members with full contact and passport data - would someone want to join the opposition? There are no freedoms, it is impossible to campaign, we cannot even hold a picket of three people - it is immediately followed by repression.

For Lukashenka any political and economic reforms are not an option, otherwise he will lose power. But people's patience is not infinite. Even having built a rigid system, it is impossible to keep 9.5 million people in absolute obedience. I'm sure of it. Moreover, it is necessary to take into account the current economic situation, which is catastrophic. This factor might as well become a catalyst for processes of regime change.

- Are Belarusians ready to fight for their rights?

- The society rejects Lukashenka. But the fear is strong, because he holds power by force of arms. The country has seven times more police officers than it did in Soviet times. In the USSR, there were 200, and in the modern Belarus there are 1,400-1,500 law enforcement officers per 100 thousand people, and there are also a variety of security services in addition to this.

Nevertheless, I am sure that the struggle against the regime is possible, but it simply should be conducted on other principles. There should at least be the underground, where the leaders of the movement are deeply classified.

- Just like the Solidarity movement acted in Poland - leaflets, underground publications, flying universities and safe houses?

- Some experience can really be borrowed from the Poles. But I am also convinced that the history itself helped them to break out of the Soviet camp. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, they agreed to let Poland go, because holding it needed a lot of strength. Russia still has the resources to keep Belarus close.

As a journalist, I have the right to criticize my colleagues - the media in Ukraine do not pay enough attention to Belarus. However, the same is true about the Ukrainian authorities. They now prefer to meet with the dictator during their visit to Belarus, but they ignore the opposition, although I thought it was wrong.

We are grateful to the organization "Maidan of Foreign Affairs," which does not forget to pay attention to Belarus. But in the current circumstances it is not enough. It is simply a must for representatives of governmental and non-governmental organizations, and especially the media, to show interest in the neighboring country, which has such a problem with human rights and such close links with an aggressive Russia. Today the trend is the following: there are no Belarusian media which would speak the truth about Ukraine, and there is no media in Ukraine, which would tell the Ukrainians the truth about Belarus. This is a disaster, because people underestimate the existing threats.

No Ukrainian TV channels broadcast in Belarus. But you have the "Belarus 24" propaganda channel. If you do not speak the truth about what is happening in the neighboring country, if you have Belarusian propaganda operating freely, and Lukashenka is the most popular foreign politician, I have bad news for you: there will be no prospect and real changes in Ukraine. Your people do not know the history of the neighboring country over the past 20 years, it watches "Belarus 24" and thinks, "Why do we need all the reforms and the Maidan revolution? There's a Russian satrapy nearby, beautiful and blooming, with no fighting or killing, and all is well there."

This problem must be addressed urgently. You should launch TV and FM-radio stations that would broadcast in the Belarusian border regions and communicate reliable information about Ukraine. There is a need for major information policy and support of projects, websites, newspapers, writing in Belarus about Ukraine.

Last year, Lukashenka and Poroshenko agreed that Belarus will broadcast the Ukrainian television programs. They are still not available. And if there was at least one Ukrainian channel, attitude of Belarusians to Ukrainians would change. We understand the difficulty of the situation you are now in. But you have international partners, tell them about how important for Belarusians to know the truth about the situation in Ukraine. Stability and security of Ukraine depends, above all, on the side Belarus will be at.

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