Will Lukashenka ask Putin for $3 bn?

If Belarus would not be given money, there will be a total collapse.

The situation in the Belarusian economy is getting worse, while the presidential election is close at hand. Barys Zhaliba, an economist, makes a forecast what the government will do in order to prevent further deterioration of citizen’s well-being, and as a result, flaring of their discontent, Salidarnasts writes. As said by him, it would be difficult for the authorities to do without new loans.

- The economic situation of the country is deteriorating every day, and population’s welfare is getting worse and worse. It is certainly related to the situation in the economy of Russia, which is experiencing the hard impact of the sanctions and declining oil prices. As a result, the Russian ruble is taking a nosedive, and its result is devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, inflation speeding and deterioration of our people’s standards of living. It is impossible to prevent deterioration of the situation in these conditions without loans. If we are not given money, then there is going to be a total collapse. That’s why Alyaksandr Lukashenka will be looking for opportunities to get a new credit from Russia. I think that in Moscow or in Sochi there is to be a conversation on this topic for sure, – Barys Zhaliba said.

The economist has also named the average sum of the loan needed.

- How much do we need not to have a serious decline? At least $3 bn, it’s a minimum. Much is to depend on how large the export income of our country will be. In this respect the prospects are gloom so far, as they depend on the Russian economy, – he noted.

According to Barys Zhaliba, the application for a loan by Belarus could be satisfied.

- I think that Russia will give money. To put it in crude terms, there is no way around for them. The Kremlin has never been interested in the Belarusian economy’s getting into a catastrophic state. We are remaining the most important ally in the West for Russia, and they have almost no others left, – the economist stated.

The economist believes that only Russia could help the authorities this year.

- It’s only the IMF which could issue credits for many billions. But first of all, they do not solve problems quickly. Secondly, the demands of the IMF remain the same: the economy should meet market standards or approach to them. But as long as the recent rulings of our authorities (freezing prices, pressure on the business sector) are in conflict with the requirements of the IMF, we won’t get anything this year, – he said.