Barys Zhaliba: Number of Russian aircraft in Belarus may grow

How will Lukashenka pay for new loans from Russia?

Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev said yesterday Russia would help Belarus with loans, but noted that Belarus's existing credit obligations would be prolonged. Economist Barys Zhaliba told charter97.org it was unclear what prolongation the Russian PM meant and what Lukashenka would have to do in exchange.

– What did Medvedev mean when he said that Russia would “prolong the existing credit obligations”?

– Earlier, Medvedev spoke negatively about Belarus and noted he would “look into” deliveries of electronic devices from Kaliningrad that Belarus had confiscated despite Russia's claims that the goods were transited via Belarus. Perhaps, he just defused tension and used the word “prolong”. I ask myself what can be prolonged. A new loan agreement is needed, because the last, sixth, tranche of the loan from the Anti-Crisis Fund has been in limbo for more than a year. If that tranche was meant, it is rather small – $440-450 million. Maybe it will be issued in the autumn.

What else can be “prolonged”? To prolong means to prolong the existing loan agreements. But all agreements have expired. We received loans both from Russian banks, in particular VTB, and the Russian government. I think Medvedev should have made a clearer statement. Either Russia will issue a new loan of $2.5 billion, which Belarus applied for, or it won't.

– Do you think they will issue it?

– It think they are likely to do so, otherwise the Belarusian economy won't survive until the presidential “elections”. If I were the Belarusian government, I would take Medvedev's statement as a good sign. [Russian] minister of finance Siluanov already said that we would get aid, and the prime minister confirms it. I think we have enough forecasts of specialists, which I agree with, that Lukashenka will receive a loan. He cannot get loans from anyone else.

– How will he pay? Does Russia want to gain control over our biggest plants?

– It's an old topic what Belarus can offer in exchange. We all know that Russians want our leading plants – Naftan, Grodnoazot and others. We still have the unsolved problem of groups of companies. I mean the MAZ-KAMAZ merger and four other joint projects. We have a problem with the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant: either it will merge with a Russian company, or it will be given under Russia's control on certain conditions, because it works for Russia. Moscow can raise this question again and say 'We give you another loan, but we need the issues that have been existing for years to be solved faster.

Perhaps, Russians will invent something new. Maybe they will increase the number of Russian military aircraft at Belarusian air bases. Such negotiations are also underway due to events in Ukraine.