Barys Zheliba: Delayed credit is tantamount to death

Today it has become known that Lukashenka had left Moscow empty-handed.

According to official statements, the question of a credit extension had not been discussed allegedly, however, experts immediately had come to a conclusion: the credit would not be granted to Belarus. In his turn, Barys Zhaliba, an economist, claims that the meeting of the leaders of Russia and Belarus is not the last one. He said so in his comment to charter97.org.

- Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that they are going to have a separate meeting on this issue, a one-on-one meeting with Putin, and to come to a decision then. I think that one way or another this issue is being discussed, and it is most likely that a continuation of its discussing is to take place at a lower level as well. For Russia the problem of melting gold and currency reserve is particularly pointed: what is the source Russia could give 2.5 billion dollars to Belarus from? – the expert says.

- Do you think the loan is to be granted still?

- It is to be granted definitely, as, to put it in crude terms, there's no way around doing so. Russia cannot afford its only ally to go economical bankrupt right now. The credit is to be extended, as they did that before. The only question is, from which source and when. The last tranche of the Anti-crisis fund of the EurAsEC, where money is mostly Russian, has been suspended for more than a year. Russia had been giving us credits through Sberbank and VTB Bank.

- Where the money for a credit to Belarus is to be found?

- As far as I am informed, the loan of 2.5 billion dollars is to be given from the Russian budget. That is, it is a governmental loan of Russia to the government of Belarus. But changes in the Russian budget should be legalized somehow, and it caused delays in the past as well. That is why previously we were given loans by VTB Bank for the period which Russians needed in order to insert amendments to the budget. A bridge loan was exactly to cover this time gap.

- But judging by the state of the Belarusian economy, a delay could be extremely difficult.

- That’s exactly right. Our gold and currency reserves are 4.7 billion dollars according to the latest estimates, and could be even less today, as we are repaying debts. That is why, it could be said that a delay is tantamount to death for us.