28 March 2024, Thursday, 18:45
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

Yakauleuski: Lukashenka's dependence on Russia is nearly absolute

Yakauleuski: Lukashenka's dependence on Russia is nearly absolute

No dictator's neutrality in the war in Ukraine.

There is a moment for Aliaksandr Lukashenka when the economy within relationships with the European Union can be separated from policy.

And he did not fail to take advantage of it, having said at a meeting with Johannes Hahn, the EU Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, about the need to readjust relationships between Belarus and the European Union.

"I would like it were readjusted from ordinary policy (probably, this stage has already been gone through, and, perhaps, a necessary one) to closer cooperation based on tackling economic problems," the Belarusian leader emphasized.

It is obviously a new stage in relations of official Minsk and the European Union. "I would name it normalization, but not relations warm up", political analyst Raman Yakauleuski stated in his interview to Belaruskaya Prauda.

- Lukashenka at a meeting with Johannes Hahn proposed to readjust relations between Belarus and the European Union in the following manner: economy without policy. Official Minsk offers to forget all the problems in bilateral relations, focusing on the economy. Is this the right time to reset relations?

It is obvious like never before that economy is closely linked to policy. After all, Western economic sanctions against Russia and Kremlin's responsive measures were politically motivated — an annexation of Crimea. And if we talk about the current political system in Belarus, it generally does not make separation of economy from policy. Policy is present in all spheres.

But with regard to inter-state relations, it is advantageous for the ruling regime to be alien to the core Western values, while developing trade and economic cooperation. And it must be admitted that it is such a welcome moment for Lukashenka. However, the current new "Cold War" with Russia demonstrates that Western governments have effective tools of impact on their business when it wants to separate economy from policy.

- At the meeting with Hahn Lukashenka performed as Putin's lawyer: "And we should by all means develop partnership not against someone, but to provide cooperation, referring to relations with Russia and China. How strong is the Russian factor in the position of the official Minsk on cooperation with the Eastern Partnership and the EU as a whole?

- No matter how tried some politicians and brainwashers to provide a special, independent position of official Minsk on cooperation with the EU, the Russian factor plays a decisive role for Lukashenka. After all, his dependence on this factor is nearly absolute. And Moscow has not much readjusted its attitude towards the Eastern Partnership, considering it the EU's anti-Russian campaign. Therefore, now they are watching closely (and not only) the next European flirting of Minsk with Brussels.

- Will the European Union take reformatting of the Eastern Partnership in Lukashenka's style?

- Almost everyone in the EU believes the project requires modernization by a differentiated approach to each of six participating partners of the EU. So, they are trying to find some "remedy" or keys to somehow Europeanize the regime. In the meantime, now it is the process of lip-service to each other with an unknown outcome.

- In fact, the EU abandons its values, turning a blind eye to existence of political prisoners, human rights violations, and the absence of elections in Belarus. Does the European Union give Lukashenka a carte blanche to any actions inland instead of neutrality in a Russian-Ukrainian war?

- First, there is no dictator's neutrality in the war in Ukraine. There is a special role which suits Putin. Second, conditions for opponents of the ruling regime are tightened within Belarus. And the fate of political prisoners is vague, despite all the declarations of the EU about their support. After all, the Belarusian society keeps indifferent silence on the matter. Thus, recognizing the right of only one known person. And some even cover their cynicism under the guise of pragmatism and refined intelligence.

- Perhaps, no one doubts that on the eve of the presidential campaign-2015 a thaw in the Belarusian-European relations is coming. What will defreezing of bilateral relations lead Belarus to?

- I would call them normalization, but not relations warm up. The experience of relations of official Minsk shows that there can be no cozy relationships, in a human sense, both with Moscow and Brussels. As for the possible effects of another "defrosting" in bilateral relations, they are almost impossible to predict. When one person decides on everything, it is impossible to find out what is on his mind.

Write your comment

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts