Barys Zhaliba: Belarusians began to spend “rainy day money”

Belarusians have sold more foreign currency than they bought for the second month. The amount of sold foreign currency is growing.

The volume of foreign currency net sale grew 3.7-fold in March in comparison to February, which was the first month when the foreign currency market worked without restrictions imposed in December 2014. Economist Barys Zhaliba explains to Salidarnasts why people began to sell foreign currency to banks.

“The answer is obvious. Real earnings of the population have declined (this year's decrease in Belarusian rubles was 3%). The average Belarusian salary in the dollar equivalent is about $400. Many plants work four and even three days a week. It means that people don't have enough money to live. They begin to spend their rainy day funds,” he said.

– Currency exchange offices work. The dollar rate has stabilised. Do trends on the retail currency market influence the current situation?

– Of course they do, and the influence is rather big. Turnover on the retail market was hundreds of millions dollars a month, sometimes almost one billion dollars. Of course, the main factor is trading on the currency exchange, but activity of the population in selling and buying foreign cash is also important.

– Are there any grounds to expect the situation to change in the nearest months?

– We hardly have them. Belarus is involved in the Russian crisis. However, every cloud has a silver lining. The balance of trade has improved, and the dollar rate against the ruble is rather stable. But it is not the best stability, because the country's GDP, as well as incomes of the population, doesn't grow.

We don't see light at the end of the tunnel. If nothing changes in the economies of Russia and Ukraine, which have large influence on the Belarusian economy, in the near future, we can hardly expect the situation on our foreign cash market to improve.