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Marius Laurinavičius: Any democratisation is direct threat to Lukashenka

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Marius Laurinavičius: Any democratisation is direct threat to Lukashenka
Marius Laurinavičius

The West repeats the same mistake with the Belarusian regime.

At the same time, Belarus cannot conduct its policy independently from the Kremlin. Any democratisation is a direct threat to the Belarusian regime.

Marius Laurinavičius, an analyst of the Lithiania-based Eastern Europe Studies Centre, said in an interview with charter97.org.

– Did official Minsk manage to become the place where negotiations could lead to positive results in solving the situation in eastern Ukraine?

– I would say that Belarus' goal from the very beginning was not to help solve the conflict. Its goal was to return, or to be more precise, to again find its place in the international arena as a mediator in the conflict, strengthen its international positions and relations with the West. We are now observing the stage (Lukashenka already did it many times, but the West buys into it again) when Belarus demonstrates the alleged desire to move to Europe. These talks, this role as the mediator and Lukashenka's rhetoric on Ukraine are excellent tactical manoeuvres to achieve this goal, but if we speak about the sincere desire to resolve the conflict, I don't think Belarus has ever had this aim.

– Can the Belarusian regime be a mediator in the conflict resolution, acting independently from the Kremlin?

– I don't think it can do it without the consent of the Kremlin. Today's Belarus cannot be taken as an absolutely independent state. Yes, it is independent and it demonstrates its independence, but don't forget about economic relations and Russian subsidies for the Belarusian economy as well as the integration of military bodies and many other things. Belarus is not a state able to carry out an independent policy or a policy contrary to Russia's interests.

We all hear Lukashenka's rhetoric on Ukraine, but when it comes to voting in the UN, Belarus votes together with Russia despite Lukashenka's statements. That is the answer.

– We know that the Belarusian foreign minister was going to visit Vilnius. There were talks about a possible invitation of Lukashenka to the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga. Does it mean that the regime's rhetoric on Ukraine is successful?

– Of course, the West seems to be going to buy into it again. It is, perhaps, the third time when Lukashenka has behaved like that. Bearing in mind the previous experience, it's possible to understand that it won't give anything. Any democratisation or a move towards the West is a direct threat to the Lukashenka regime. Lukashenka will never allow it.

I am not speaking about democratic reforms and political prisoners. I am speaking about an economic model of the state. If Belarus chose a path of a liberal economy, it would be a direct threat to the Lukashenka regime. One of the regime's keystones is that at least 90% of the country's population (or even more, according to some analysts) depend on the state directly. If it weren't for this dependence, the Belarusian regime would have found itself in danger long ago.

– Can Belarus become a lodgement for Russian troops? What can Lithuania and Poland expect?

– It is already happening now. Just after Nato had announced its plans to strengthen Nato's Baltic air-policing mission, Lukashenka asked Russia (in the context of the cooperation with the West) to increase the number of Russian aircraft in Belarus. It is already happening if we speak about new agreements on military bases.

I think it is to a certain extent inspired by Russia, which looks for responses to Nato's actions (though Nato's actions were provoked by Russia, they are a response). Actually, Lukashenka's position has always been consistent and unchanged – the West and Nato are allegedly dangerous for him. Everything is clear in this sense. Russia already increases its military presence in Belarus.

– Lukashenka has been heading the state for more than 20 years. He is going to be “re-elected” this autumn. We see warmer relations with the West. Can we say that the EU is interested in Belarus in the current geopolitical context?

– I would say that more initiative is shown by the US that still hopes in the global world to change Belarus' position in one way or another and, perhaps, not so radically, which could help solve other global problems. Some signs of self-delusion and a desire to believe that Lukashenka is really ready for actions this time can be seen in Europe. It is partially because they don't understand how the Russian and Belarusian regimes function. Most Europeans really believe that Lukashenka fears that Belarus may repeat the fate of Ukraine. I think they don't understand how the Russian and Belarusian regime work and support each other, how integrated they are. But I must admit, there are such moods in Europe.

– What can be expected in eastern Ukraine? Can we expect Russia to launch an offensive (though it denies it has troops in Ukraine)? How will Lukashenka behave if it happens?

– I think the goal of Russia is to stop the military stage of the conflict. It doesn't mean Russia will leave Ukraine alone. They just want to stop the military stage and achieve their goals by other means, with the help of subversive acts and economic pressure. They want to destroy the state and want the government [of Ukraine] to disappear.

There is a theoretical possibility that the forces that want war will find a way to start other military actions. I think Russia wants to end the military stage of the conflict as soon as possible, avoid sanctions and achieve its goals in Ukraine by other means.

As for Belarus, it will continue to behave like before. Perhaps, Abkhazia could be a better example than Ukraine. Let's remember that Belarus hasn't recognised it. Belarus will carry out a policy of non-recognition at the rhetorical level but will continue to cooperate with Russia at the practical level. The rhetoric non-recognition will not change Belarus' actions.

– How should Lithuania behave in the current situation in relation to its neighbour? What position should it take?

– This is a very difficult question. It is harmful for Lithuania to say in public, “It's a lie, don't believe it, don't deal with Lukashenka.” But the task of our politicians, diplomats and analysts is tor try to explain to our western partners somewhere on the sidelines that we are going to swallow the same hook, we repeat the same mistake. I think the role of Lithuania in what concerns both Russia and Belarus is to try to warn the West that the game will gave no results and there's no sense in hoping that the Lukashenka regime will change and become more democratic.

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