Black August for Belarusian ruble

The Belarusian ruble continues its sharp decline.

The Belarusian ruble fell more than 100 rubles against the dollar on the currency and stock exchange yesterday. The ruble hit the new record – Br15,805 per dollar, Belsat TV reports.

According to the official information of the National Bank of Belarus, the national currency has declined almost 4% against the dollar, which is 584 rubles, in the first 10 days of August. The situation looks even sadder if we compare the current ruble rate to that of the beginning of the year. The national currency has fallen by almost 33% since January 1.

“I see external reasons first of all. This is the fall of the Russian ruble,” financial analyst at Alpari Vadzim Iosub says.

The Russian ruble devalues due to decreased oil prices. Brent crude was traded at slightly more than $48 per barrel on the exchange in London on Monday.

“Oil price is likely to continue falling. The Russian ruble will drop too, and the dollar in Russia will grow. So, we can conclude that the dollar will also grow in Belarus,” Vadzim Iosub said.

Economists stressed recently that the Belarusian ruble falls slower than the Russian ruble. The Either Belarusian national currency will slump or the government will have to spend the country's forex reserves to support the ruble. We don't have much forex reserves, so the devaluation scenario looks more probable.

It is indirectly confirmed by recent statements by prime minister Andrei Kabiakou, who promises to resume economic growth in the second half of the year with the help of more active exports, which is impossible without a devaluation.

“We have some problems with sales. We try to be competitive in the Russian market,” economist Leanid Zaika says.

“If Russia gives us some money (it already gave us 700 million), the picture will still look good. In any case, Belarus needs to completely change its economic policy,” he notes.

Both experts and ordinary Belarusians notice the disability of the Belarusian economy:

“The dollar is growing, prices are going up, food and other goods are rising in price.”

“It affects our budget. We cannot afford many things and need to think about our expenses.”

“There's nothing good. I think it's only the beginning. We'll see what happens next.”

Independent experts do not have a common opinion on the bottom the Belarusian ruble, but even the most optimistic forecasts say it will easily reach Br17,000 a dollar in the near future.