Vitaly Portnikov: Belarus is doomed to Europe

It absolutely doesn't matter what Minsk thinks about it today. It matters what history, economy and geography will tell the Belarusians.

Twenty three years ago, the Belarusian parliament declared the independence of the country, following the same step by the Ukrainian parliament, Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov writes in his article titled “Belarus is doomed to Europe”, which was published on the website of Espreso TV.

“It was even more unexpected decision for the Belarusians that it was for the Ukrainians. Supporters of sovereignty were not a majority in the perestroika years. The nomenclature held its strong positions in governing the country. Moreover, the people of Belarus were even more Soviet than the nomenclature, which became evident three years later, when autocrat and populist Aliaksandr Lukashenka was elected the first, and yet the latest, president of the country,” he writes.

Can we say that the decision on independence was premature for the Belarusian people and that it led the country into a political and economic deadlock?

“It's too early to make such statements,” Vitaly Portnikov says. “Yes, Belarus's heads – PM Viachaslau Kebich and later Lukashenka – have been trading the country's sovereignty in exchange for preserving the marginal economy and social life , which still makes Belarus a Soviet reserve. Yes, Belarusian society lacked strength to carry out serious reforms and give up Soviet experience. Yes, Belarus is an ally of one of the most disgusting regimes in today's world. Yes, the union with Russia poses a threat to Belarus's sovereignty and also to its culture, language and the very spirit of the country. Because the “union members” treat everything Belarusian, as well as everything Ukrainian, with unhidden contempt. They are ready to pay in order that real European Belarus would never appear.”

But this Belarus will appear because the empire counts down its last years untill the collapse, the journalist thinks.

“Belarus doesn't have a choice between Russia and Europe – even if most citizens of the country don't understand it yet,” he writes. “Russia will soon stops financing Belarus, and the two countries will have a real border. Russian troops will leave this country because Moscow won't have money for such entertainment.

Belarus will have to turn its face to the West and start reforms. Belarus is doomed to be a member of the EU and NATO regardless of whether people want it today or not. Belarus is doomed to protect its language and give up Soviet traditions regardless of whether people want it today or not. Belarus is doomed to a union with Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania, not to today's union with Russia and Kazakhstan. It absolutely doesn't matter what Minsk thinks about it today. It matters what history, economy and geography will tell the Belarusians.