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Polish expert: Formation of Baltic-Black Sea union quite probable

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Polish expert: Formation of Baltic-Black Sea union quite probable
Przemysław Żurawski Vel Grajewski

Belarus may become a part of the union only after democratic changes.

Przemysław Żurawski Vel Grajewski, an expert in international politics and security at the University of Lodz (Poland), said it to charter97.org.

– New Polish president Andrzej Duda proposed the idea before his inauguration about the formation of the bloc of states from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. The idea was popular in the early 1990s among Belarusian democratic politicians. What do you think about Andrzej Duda's statement and the concept of the Baltic-Black Sea union?

– To a certain degree it would be the return to the policy Poland was carrying out in 1989 and 1991 – the policy of looking for support in the region and looking for common interests to repel the threat from Russia or to respond to challenges to our region from the international community.

Of course, the states are so different. They have feel international threats differently and have different interests. There are also certain problems with relations inside the region.

I think, however, that we will be able to outline common interests at the first stage. Today's Poland, as it always was historically, will find ambitions to defend and represent these interests.

I don't mean the leadership, which is understood as the right to give orders. Nobody expects it from foreign policy. I mean that Poland should not forget that our neighbours, not very big states, have the same interests that Poland has, but they are ignored by bigger states.

Though not a big state, Poland is the second largest country in the region after Ukraine. It has much more political importance than Ukraine due to its membership in the EU, NATO and the high level of society consolidation.

I think the declaration by president Andrzej Duda is quite probable in the sense that Poland will take into account interests of the states and nations of our region in its international policy.

It is important to be ready to pay for defending the interests of the countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region even in case of a conflict with “the mighty”. Betrayal of interests of our closest neighbours must be treated as conflicting with the interests of Poland.

– How do you see the role of Belarus in the Baltic-Black Sea bloc? Unlike democratic Poland, our country is authoritarian.

– Belarus in this case is really the most difficult issue. Cooperation with other countries can be carried out in the field of adoption and implementation ordinary intergovernmental decisions.

As of Belarus, the creation of such a cooperation platform will require deep changes in policy, both in Belarus and Poland. What we have today is rather a platform for observation than for actions. It can be used to monitor Aliaksandr Lukashenka's readiness to surrender Russia's imperialistic policy.

On the other hand, we have experience of dealing with the Belarusian democratic opposition. It should not be underestimated. We should always remember that any manoeuvres with the dictatorship are doomed to failure with a high probability. As the sole power holder, the dictator can perform political manoeuvres faster and defeat his democratic partners.

Supporting Belarus's independence is the basic interest of the policy of Poland in the face of a threat of Russian military expansion. Each political force that works in the interests of Belarus's independence in deed and not in word can count on support from Poland. Effectiveness of Lukashenka's dictatorship in this direction remains very low. We should remember it.

If we put aside the topic of military and political issues and speak about culture, Belarus and its independence is an important direction in the Polish policy. Here we have cooperation between people – citizens and organisations – rather than between governments.

Both Belarus and Poland need to revive the memory of the common history and common interests in national consciousness. We need to unite efforts for joint cultural projects, to revive memory about our common contributions to the history of parliamentarism and creation of traditions of social order common for our nations, I mean Polish-Lithuanian unions (which were, in fact, Polish-Belarusian), history of the Sejm in general and participation of both nations in state building of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

The rival of these aspects of historical memory will undoubtedly require sponsor aid from the state. It would be good if the state were engaged in programmes on reviving the common national memory, for example the Jagiello Festival, which was included in the programme of Law and Justice party's division in Katowice. The festival is supposed to be held at different levels and unite all sorts of artists (cinema, music, poetry, painting) from Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Latvia and other countries having relation to Jagiello's heritage.

The revival of the national and historical consciousness will become the foundation for political cooperation with Belarus. Remembering the past, public opinion will be able to support political projects, too. If Belarus has Soviet and Russian cultural heritage, it will significantly reduce opportunities for cooperation with Poland.

Poland should do a lot of work in cultural cooperation with Belarusian society and NGOs. In my view, this is the key direction.

I like to use the following formula in discussions: Belarus will become really Belarusian when Belarusian boys will play war pretending to be soldiers of Hetman Ostrogski or Bulak-Balakhovich instead of Soviet guerrillas or Suvorov's soldiers.

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