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Before The New Year Dollar May Equal To 2.7 Rubles, Bankers Say

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Before The New Year Dollar May Equal To 2.7 Rubles, Bankers Say

At the end of the year the Belarusian ruble is waiting on a new wave of devaluation.

Banks, analytical agencies and other financial-credit organizations have predicted the dollar exchange rate and preservation of inflation development.

As of October 2016 the dollar exchange rate ranges from 1.9336 to 1.9149 rubles. This year has become an extremely variable for an American currency not only in Belarus, but in other CIS countries. For example, the dollar has hit its all-time high several times in Kazakhstan. In 2015 it did not exceed 180 tenge, today it equals to 330. According to BelaPAN, twelve leading banks of Belarus took part in the analytical survey, which aimed to make a forecast of the dollar for the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017.

The survey showed that experts foresaw weakening of the national currency until the end of the year, meanwhile, every participant had his own understanding of future value of the devaluation.

The beginning of the New Year, according to analysts, will be marked by the fact that the dollar will cost 1.9 - 2.41 rubles. The chance of it equals to 40%.

The very sense of the scenario supported by the least number of analysts is that the first quarter of the next year starts with 2.4-2.7 rubles.

The third option is more optimistic - up to 2.23 rubles.

Experts speak of "three crisis horses": rapid, smooth and minimal devaluation.

As the survey shows, professional participants of the financial market foresee several ways of development, none of which involves a final stabilization of the national currency. On the contrary, some believe that the official devaluation of the national currency against hard currencies in systems with a fixed exchange rate will occur as fast as possible, while the latter speak for a smooth decrease.

Experts who adhere to the third option are more optimistic. They suggest that the devaluation will be minimal. However, such a scenario with the fluctuation of the dollar within1.93-1.91rubles for more than 1-2 months experts concern unsound.

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