Leanid Zaika: Such Programs Are Good for Launching of a Belarusian Spaceship to Mars

At best the program for 2016-2020 is forgotten in a week.

The "House of Representatives" has adopted the government's program for 2016-2020. There are only few real plans, in most cases it includes only wishes, Belaruskaya prauda reports. For example, a wish to "provide the growth rate of the economy exceeding the world average one by the end of the five-year plan" sounds good.

The program specifies "the complex of consecutive and interconnected institutional steps grouped together in to five main blocks."

"The first is measures aimed at restoration of competitiveness of the industry sphere. The second is related to lowering costs and restructuring of energy and housing and public utilities block. The third one implies job creation, development of small- and mid-size business. The fourth affects infrastructure and construction complex and defines mechanisms of lowering costs, export growth and diversification of construction materials. The fifth promotes powerful social orientation, the very sense of it involves purposive character, the implementation of social programs to improve the quality of life," BelTA quotes.

Leanid Zaika, the leader of Strategy analysis center, told about the sense of the project:

–The ruler ordered to determine directions of the economic policy and it was done. The government drafted the document that mentioned innovations, job places. It sounds the commonplace truth: at the level of enterprises, industry level and macroeconomics. Special tasks are defined. But they were urgent in 1966. I could not find anything special in the program. I have dealt with the economy for long. The document says there is a need to enhance efficiency of the economy.

There is much useless information in the document. How will macroeconomic balancing be practiced? Will Belarus reduce tax burden? No. How will institutional changes occur? Will new development institutions appear? No.

Such plans are good for launching of a Belarusian spaceship to Mars. But the thing proposed is not going to fly anywhere.

It is noteworthy the program is developed until 2020. I am absolutely sure that there will be a new government by 2020, and it will not know how to fix the economy. At best the program is forgotten in a week.

- Can the document be considered an activity program?

- The government feels enthusiasm about the very Economy Ministry, which is subject to shut-down. But it operates. Therefore, bureaucrats are seeking methods not to be dismissed: There is a youth's urge; the language has become more scientific, although it is still lagging behind the explanation of PhD Andrei Tur. But whom is it demonstrated for? Specialists understand that the program enumerates bad things that must be turned into something good.

- But it does not specify how to make it real.

- There is one phrase, which can characterize the entire program. It comes from the Soviet times: increase turnover of working assets.

The program must specify such things as: brakes, which are subject to removal, ministries that are subject to liquidation, ways to determine prospects of economic freedom, and whether Belarusian economy will stimulate new forms of ownership. "Attraction of investments, creation of favorable investment climate" is hoary tales. Business in Belarus is being ruined: all kinds of it, including Chyzh and other "oligarchs". Will taxes be increased again? They say they will contribute to reduction of interest rates and credits. And current rates are prohibitive and nothing needs promotion: business must touch the bottom, and be reformatted and then it will work.

The inflation subjects to decrease by 5%. Why should you wait for five years to do it? People now earn Br1.5-2 million, what are you waiting for?! 90% of cafes in the city are loss-making. A person I know has bought a business at $60 000, not it is sold at $27000.

In their program bureaucrats should have written as follows:

1. Export dropped by 20% – wages of the government is automatically falling by 20%, export of sausages equals to 36 % – the Ministry of Agriculture and Food earns now only 36% of the current salary. Those living in Drazdy must put forward an initiative and reduce their wages by 30%.

2. Considering the economic crisis, inhabitants of Drazdy must sell the third of their houses and transfer the money to loss-making enterprises.