Raman Yakauleuski: Minsk and the Kremlin Dance and Sing Ditties

After the NATO summit Putin will not allow an uncertainty in relations with the Belarusian strategic ally.

Premiers of Belarus and Russia failed to cease the oil and gas war in Moscow. Amid the raw material's escalation 15 Belarusian dairy plants have stopped the supply of milk powder to Russia. Moscow makes less loud statements, but inflicts very tangible economic blows to official Minsk.

What is behind other flare-up between Belarus and Russia? Raman Yakauleuski, political observer, answers questions of Belprauda:

- Prime Ministers of Belarus and Russia failed to cut oil and gas knot in Moscow. Why? Perhaps, Reuters was right that it was the Kremlin's revenge for Lukashenka's welcoming attitude towards the West?

- I think, this version is likely fanciful, not real. Lukashenka has not turned to the West. He is still "firmly" bound to the Kremlin's leadership with numerous obligations which are specifically interpreted both by Minsk and Moscow. And it makes some tensions possible from time to time. Relations of Lukashenka and the Kremlin, those who really make a difference in both countries. I would assume that such statement of the Western agency could be inspired by those who like talks about "neutrality", independence of Lukashenka's regime from the Kremlin. It is not true. There is only a wish to get more and pay less.

- Oil and gas confrontation is deteriorated with unfriendly activity in the dairy market. Has the economy become the key lever of pressure on official Minsk?

- Monetization in relationships is a typical characteristic of Mr. Putin. It is a sort of ultra-realism. It doesn't matter whether this is a friend or a foe.

- Experience shows that Moscow waits for response of official Minsk in return for some economic preferences. Does the problem with deployment of the Russian airbase emerge full blown again?

- It is obvious that after the NATO summit in Warsaw, Russia's relations with the West consolidated in a defensive alliance enter a new hardly predictable phase of tension. In such situation Putin will not allow any uncertainty in relations with the Belarusian strategic ally. More relevant thinking - a rocket one has replaced the basic one in the Kremlin. Here is a polonaise, which is usually danced with ditties.