"Gas Dispute": Lukashenka Keeps One Eye On The Gallery

What losses does Belarus bear when bargaining for Russian gas?

Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Uladzimir Semashka stated that the gas negotiations with Russia would continue.

How long will resolution of a Belarus-Russian gas issue last and who will take advangate of it?

The matter has already reached a principle point, economist Leu Margolin believes.

- Just over a week ago, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said that the issue was resolved, and on September 14 Uladzimir Semashka would leave to sign the new contactual arrangement. Russians said no decision had been taken. Apparently, the search for a compromise is on, an interlocutor of Zautra Tvaye Krainy says. - Each party wants the compromise to closely comply with conditions that it sets forth.

According to the economist, Russia will suffer little losses: the debt is getting bigger, but $400 million are not a critical sum. But Belarus suffers much when the reduction of oil supply: it is impossible to compensate what will be under delivered in the third and fourth quarter.

The Belarusian side is at a greater disadvantage. And if a compromise is reached, Russia is the one who takes advantage of it, expert predicts.

— Shortage of money in our country became the cause of the conflict, Leu Marholin notes. - And the race for them has been launched. Belarusians have never wanted to pay more than Russian enterprises do. There were references to political arrangements, an economic union, anything to achieve the price reduction.

To be sure, the price Belarus is subject to pay under the agreement hardly differs from that in Europe.

- It turns out one could buy gas in the West at the same price, as Ukraine does. While Russian enterprises pay less, the expert says.

At the beginning of last week, Lukashenka gave the government two days to solve the gas issue, which did not bust logjam. Will the guilty ones in failure to perform the ruler's requirements be looked for?

- Lukashenka is well aware of how it does not depend on our officials, so menacing tone and voicing of unfulfillable terms aim to keep one eye on the gallery, the interlocutor believes.

Losses of oil supply shortage will be greater than those the Belarusians would suffer from full settlement for gas, the expert stresses.

- This is what Russia figures on: if you do not want to pay, then you'll be less lucky in something else. Oil is liquid goods which can be sold elsewhere, Leu Marholin sums up.