Raman Yakauleuski: Sham Chairman Of “Union State” Remains Of No Importance For Kremlin

Lukashenka has given to hold the baby by his military and political cooperation with Russia.

Belarusian political observer Raman Yakauleuski has said this in an interview to Azeri.Today.

— How do the relations of Belarus and Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Russia are developing at the level of the Eurasian Economic Union?

— This is not a secret that this Eurasian integration project is going through rough times now. The attempts to combine it with the EU remain unsuccessful. The initiated confrontation between Russia and the West negatively influences the situation within the EEU itself. Expanding of the list of countries which sign memorandums on creating free trade zones with the EEU rather than agreements should not lead into the integration euphoria. However, if Turkey appears in this zone there will be less pessimism. But, who with? Thus, I wouldn’t use the term “development” speaking about this integration project.

— Lukashenka had a meeting with the Secretary of State of the “Union State” Ryhor Rapota and discussed the destinies of the integration projects, as well as the problems of Belarus and Russia. What are the discrepancies which exist between Belarus and Russia today?

— I would like to remind that this “state” is not a subject of the international law. It lacks all the attributes (a citizenship, a flag, a coat-of-arms, a sole visa, an embassy). All the decisions taken on its behalf cannot be recognized legitimate by the whole remaining world. The military, defensive component also doesn’t exist which does not contribute to the reality of this unification with a budget. However, this should not be mixed up with the Russia-Belarus military-technical cooperation which is considered the most close and real cooperation in the CIS. However, as it is known or unknown, dissatisfaction and discrepancies sometimes occur even in this sphere of bilateral relations. This concerns the union construction to an even larger extent, as the irreplaceable chairman of the Supreme State Council of the Union State Lukashenka remains of no importance for the Kremlin.

— The parties have been trying to agree on the gas price but in vain. Moreover, Russia reduced shipment of oil to Belarus. Do they consider this as Moscow’s pressure in Belarus?

— The gas strain periodically appears between the two strategic allies, when Minsk is trying to force over Moscow its own interpretation on the previously taken obligations. However, as a rule, Belarus managed to soft-talk Russia into believing there was no money to pay. As for the objects of the Belarusian property, which seriously interest the Russian business, Belarus is reluctant to give them away as a repayment. However, the peculiarity of the current stage of the conflict is that Moscow does not have such big money today to accept Minsk’s terms once again. It is worth mentioning that when some people in Minsk speak about the growing pressure from Moscow’s side, they seem not to notice that it has been in the special “Crimea” condition for some two years. Nobody knows what mood will follow the Kremlin’s current demonstrative silence.

— Is it possible that Belarus turns its back to Russia and quits the EEU and the CSTO in case Russia continues, as Lukashenka says, its open pressure?

— You are figuratively asking about a possibility of “turning one’s back”. I vividly remembered Putin’s words “a knife in a back” regarding the reasons of the recent conflict with President Erdogan. Anything is possible in the political pressure which occurs in one or another conflict. As for Belarus quitting the CSTO, I think it’s impossible. We will see it once again very soon. This time it will be in Yerevan in October, where the announced summit of the states-members of the CSTO is planned to take place.