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Natallia Radzina: Process Of Ouster Lukashenka From Power Goes On

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Natallia Radzina: Process Of Ouster Lukashenka From Power Goes On

In such situation, it remains very important to help the democratic opposition of Belarus.

Editor-in-Chief of the charter97.org website Natallia Radzina has said this in the program “Prasviet” on Belsat TV.

– Natallia, political analyst Dzianis Melyantsou sticks to the idea that the relations with the West are being normalized. Everything looks nice and optimistic. The sides are taking steps towards each other. As if no obstacles ever existed. However, there was a whole list of demands to Belarus by the EU just recently. They pointed out lack of democracy and fair elections. The OSCE didn’t recognize the latest election. Why has the West changed its position and stopped talking about democracy, or paying any attention to this issue, but is trying to reach agreement with Lukashenka instead?

– Indeed, we can observe the improvement of relations between the official Minsk and the Western countries, but it’s not the most important thing today. The most important is that Lukashenka receives no financial aid which he counted upon, in exchange. I think this is fair. Therefore, it doesn’t bother me much that a crowd of European officials seems to be travelling to Minsk today, it remains most essential they do not invest money in the dictatorship. The European Union preconditions its support to Minsk, which also means financial support, by strict terms of observance of human rights and conducting free and fair elections. In this situation we cannot speak about some serious improvement or a “break-through” at the foreign politics front today. The dictatorship is getting no money.

– How would you comment the gesture, when Kanapatskaya and Anisim were allowed to enter the “chamber of representatives”, that non-democratic “parliament”, which is not even a real parliament? Is this a price for softening the West’s rhetoric? Did this gesture work?

– The OSCE observers made a very principle report on how the “elections” were held. They acknowledged the elections totally failed to correspond with the international standards, and made 32 recommendations for the Belarusian authorities. Therefore, the fact that Lukashenka placed two marionettes allegedly representing the opposition, to the parliament didn’t play the part he counted on.

– In the recent weeks, some unprecedented maneuvers have been happening between Russia and Belarus. On the one side, there was a rather intensive informational attack on Belarus via television, chauvinistic websites, and video-blogs. All possible means have been used in the last month.

– No movies “The Godbatka” have been shown yet.

– However, “The Godbatka” could be switched off, like they did several years ago. What is going on? What the Russian authorities and the circles close to the government are reacting at?

– I believe the gradual process of Lukashenka’s replacement and ouster him from power is going on. Moreover, it’s not the statements made by several Russian chauvinists or the secret services officer Reshetnikov that demonstrate it in the first place, but the economy. Just look what is happening: Russia has sharply decreased the oil supplies to Belarus, Belarus received 18 million tons of oil this year and will receive 18 million tons next year, instead of the 24-25 million tons, and this looks a serious cut of financing provided to Lukashenka.

– Some say, the cut of the Russian grants to Lukashenka.

– Yes. The gas debt has not been settled yet. The gas war goes on and proceeds to the year 2017. The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance keeps controlling the Belarusian border and stops not only the trucks transporting the re-exported products, but the Belarusian products as well. Just see what happens next. The oil products supplies were reduced, and the export of oil products to the European Union countries fell by 38% today.

– You mean, this is the regime’s key source of revenues?

– Certainly. This is our main export expenditure. So, who will not receive enough money in the first place? The secret services, the KGB, the police – all the people on whom Lukashenka’s regime survives.

– There has been an article recently, claiming that Lukashenka didn’t go to the EAEU summit in St.Petersburg, because he had a feeling that a turnover might happen in Minsk, and he would be replaced with a pro-Russian leader. He managed to avoid that turnover by staying. Does this scenario seem real – can Lukashenka be dethroned and replaced with someone else by the means of a state turnover, organized by the secret services and the Russian agents in Minsk?

– Lukashenka’s paranoid, the oil-and-gas and informational wars are in progress. In fact, Lukashenka is being humiliated in public. Could he possibly go to the EAEU summit in a situation like this? He knew he would look like a doggy on a short leash there. He didn’t want to endure yet another humiliation so he stayed. However, he certainly fears he might be replaced.

– Are there any proofs?

– Various information has been reported, it is being processed and analyzed. Apart from the economic factors which I already mentioned, let us recall the way the personnel replacements are held in Belarus. Lukashenka dismissed the head of his administration, the deputy head of his administration, the deputy head of the General Headquarters, the deputy Foreign Minister, and the head of his security service. Do you think it is happening for no special reason? What about the dismissal of Maltsau, one of his most loyal allies, the former Minister of Defense and the head of the State Borderline Committee? I think that such things are done for some reason, in the last days of the passing year. This is obvious.

– Is there a concrete candidate who could replace Lukashenka? There have been talks he might be dethroned via a state turnover since long ago.

– They might send someone like Frants Klintsevich from the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, as he comes from Belarus.

– Everyone is talking about Trump. Some say he is an unpredictable person. His nominations and first decisions prove it. Others claim America’s policy is stable and will remain unchanged for many years to come. What will be the policy of Trump’s administration in relation to Belarus? How do you see it?

– First of all, Trump cannot rule alone, so I don’t expect any radical changes will happen. The policy of checks and balances works in the United States better than anywhere. I wouldn’t make a big tragedy of it, like, Trump will come and everything will drastically change. On the other hand, I still hope that the President of the United States will pay more attention to the foreign policy, the dictatorial regimes in particular and recall the US mission to bring freedom to these countries, and how much America did to make Poland and other countries of the eastern block free.

- There is no American Ambassador in Minsk and no Belarusian Ambassador in Washington. The European Union lifted its sanctions off Belarus in the beginning of the year, the United States only suspended theirs. What is the difference between these events with regard to Belarus, and what stands in the way of normalization of the relations between Minsk and Washington?

– Nothing changed fundamentally. The problem is, Western politicians and diplomats do not see the geo-political significance of Belarus today. They don’t understand that the free democratic Belarus is the most important thing for America, and for the EU in the first place. What are we talking about during the whole program? We keep saying that Lukashenka is no longer a president, actually.

He was Putin’s marionette, he was appointed here in 1994 – this was the project launched by the Russian secret services aimed at keeping control over the neighbouring country. So, it looks obvious today that the agreements with Lukashenka will lead to nothing as he is a bankrupt.

– An event which some recall and forget from time to time will happen in the new year – the Russian-Belarusian maneuvers “West-2017”. We can talk a lot, meet, make declarations, but, in the reality, a huge Russian army will come to Belarus next year. What will be the results of the visit of all those soldiers and military machinery? Will they stay in Belarus? Will there be the war against Ukraine? Or will they just conduct the maneuvers, Lukashenka will demonstrate that “we are allies” and they will return home? How do you see this?

– This is very dangerous as they can come and stay. And I can say that after the last exercise, which took place in Belarus jointly with Russia, a part of the Russian military remained at the territory of our country. This is done for some reason. Again, it does not matter whether Lukashenka will remain a president, as a Russian puppet, or they will replace him for another puppet, which at least would be able to manage the economy and spend the Russian money more reasonably, say, there will be less to steal, because Lukashenka stole too much of the Russian subsidies. It doesn’t matter! What is important is to look two steps ahead. If Belarus continues to be under the protection of Russia, it carries an imminent threat also to the Baltic countries, and Poland and Ukraine.

– As a military base area for the Russian aggression.

– Of course, and that is why, instead of negotiating with the bankrupt-dictator, instead of closing Belsat TV, it is necessary to think how to help the democratic opposition, how to develop the independent media to make Belarus a free democratic country. This would be the guarantee of the security of Europe and Ukraine.

– What external factors will determine the situation in Belarus in the first place?

– In the first place, it will be the Belarusian people who will determine their country’s destiny. We must finally pick our stamina and really get involved into the destiny of our country. It depends solely on us – not on Putin or Lukashenka, but on us!

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