Russia putting pressure on Lukashenka

A short report of the Echo of Moscow last Friday exploded the informational space of Russian and Belarus.

Putin comes to Minsk to sign the constitutional act of the ”union state”, after that he becomes head of the new united state, in which Lukashenka will take a post of parliament’s speaker, and Zubkov will head the government. The information was refuted by Minsk and Moscow.

Echo referred not to sources in the Kremlin, which would be logical, but to a source in the administration of Belarusian president, which looked odd. However, there wasn’t anything odd. Observers think the action was pre-arranged.

Official report about visit of Vladimir Putin to Minsk on 13–14 December appeared 2 weeks ago. Putin paid visits to Minsk long time ago, and nobody remembers when his visits lasted for 2 days. “He comes to finish Lukashenka with gas,” Belarusian experts, analysts, politicians and journalists said in unison.

A year has passed since the gas price was doubled (up to USD 100 per 1.000 cubic meters), this year was presented to Lukashenka as a probation period. But Mr. Lukashenka didn’t learn the lesson and make strategic conclusions. Time for final account has come.

By the way, Russia didn’t pay attention to an important detail: the leak took place on Friday, when Lukashenka was far away from Minsk – in Venezuela. His friend Hugo was awarding him with Order of the Liberator. A big delegation left Minsk for Karakas. And all officials, who possess any information, were in Venezuela’s capital. But even the most informed people form Lukashenka’s environment don’t know, what Putin will demand in Minsk. It means, the information couldn’t leak form Lukashenka’s administration. So, the leak was organised in Moscow (Belarusian security ministers said that it was organised by the FSB) and peruses two aims. The first and main one is to demoralise Lukashenka, demonstrate that he doesn’t control his own administration in Belarus. The second aim is to watch the reactions both of Lukashenka and the society.

However, Lukashenka is demoralised in any case. Belarusian economy, fuelled only by chip Russian gas for many years, is close to collapse. Moreover, the next round of negotiations with Gazprom came to a dead end on Thursday, and Russian side declared the future gas price for Belarus would be at least USD 165 per 1.000 cubic meters. Lukashenka and his delegation flew to Venezuela not for the order, but for a loan. But Venezuela won’t give credit: Chavez has been warned not to give any loans, if he wants to go on business with Russian (the information is not from Chavez’s administration).

The constitutional act won’t be signed in Minsk. It is simply not ready.