US presidential elections. Famous Belarusians making forecasts

Presidential elections are held in the United States today. The results of the elections will influence the fate of the huge country and the whole world. Famous Belarusians tried to forecast a winner of the elections and the consequences of the elections for Belarus.

Raman Yakauleuski, political observer:

– According to the latest data, a gap between Obama and McCain is reducing. Obama is losing his advantage. But much depends of the results of voting in booths. As for today, none of the famous experts can say with certainty that Obama will win. One an elector knows what factors are important when voting for a candidate. As it is known, a process of voting in polling booth is rather intimate in the US.

There will be no comfortable president for Lukashenka. Neither Obama nor McCain offer bright prospects. What concerns the Belarusian opposition, in my view, McCain, who is acquainted with many oppositionists, is more suitable for it. By the way, if Belarus can vote, Obama won’t gain the majority. Nobody knows him here, while McCain is predictable and understandable.

I’d like to turn attention that the final winner of the race will be known only in January, when voter will vote. The United States has a two-stage electoral system. The results of the elections will be officially tailed, but we will know the winner on November 5. We have little time to wait.

Mikalai Khalezin, playwright, head of the Free Theatre:

– We are invited to the American embassy for morning November 5 to meet the new US President. We attended the vote-party in 200o for the last time, when we had just come back from the US where we had spent a month learning the electoral system and talking with leading American political advisors. 8 years ago, I predicted Bush’s victory, it was easy, I had travelled along the perimeter of the country and just added together the votes of the biggest states.

Today, the situation is even simpler. One needn’t go to the United States to understand that the majority of Americans will elect Obama and vote against the Republicans in protest. Image of the Republicans is spoilt by the current president, especially during his second term in power. It is more interesting to forecast not a winner of the elections, but possible changes. These elections are unique in any case: Afro-American president or female vice president. The Americans are loyal to female vice president, but Afro-American president will become a serious obstacle for many democrats, in spite of numerous Hollywood’s attempts to immunise against presidential racism.

In my view, Obama will gain confident win, but it is also obvious for me that the forecasted figures of opinion polls will be corrected according to the reality. I think the results will be Obama - 49 per cent, McCain - 43 per cent, another – 8 per cent. We have little time to wait.

Viktar Ivashkevich, deputy head of the head of the Belarusian Popular Front:

– Frankly speaking, I can’t imagine who will be president of the US. In think if John McCain won, it would be better for Belarus, because this politician supported the Belarus Democracy Act, met with leaders of the Belarusian opposition, he has always been principal towards the dictatorship of Lukashenka. But it is difficult to say what Barack Obama knows about Belarus. Maybe, he knows a little. In any case, whoever will be US president, it is important that the position of America towards the Belarusian authorities is more principle than that of the European Union. Economic sanctions, imposed on Lukashenka by the US, helped to release political prisoners Alyaksandr Kazulin, Syarhei Parsyukevich and Andrei Kim. These sanctions were leverage over policy. They can be imposed, suspended, one can threat with them, but it is a general instrument of combating dictatorships.

Iryna Khalip, well-known journalist:

– In think, no one doubts about candidature of the future US president. The current balance of power will hardly shift to john McCain, so, Barack Obama’s victory is undoubted. In my view, the US policy towards Belarus won’t change whoever wins. It means that US policy will still resemble a medium tooth brush of medium hardness. The EU’s carrot policy towards Lukashenka and his officials may cause what was called by Stalin “dizziness from success” among the authorities of the country and as a result lead to new repressions against the opposition. Americans should understand that Belarus is an important object of applying of force right now, when the European Union has refused to promote democratisation in Belarus.

How elections are conducted in the US

US citizens vote not for president, but for electors of the Electoral College. Electors are elected by popular vote in each state. A party, gained most of the votes, wins all votes of the state.

The Electoral College is formed on a federal principle. Each state has a number of electors equal to the number of its Senators (all 100) and Representatives (all 435) in the United States Congress. In 1964, the District of Columbia was allowed to elect three persons to the College. Thus, the number of electors in the country is 538.

There are no single elections observing and voting systems in the United States. There are separate and simultaneous 50 elections in states and one in the District of Columbia.

Each state has its own electoral laws, moreover, the rules may differ in counties. People may receive paper voting ballots and mark off, or a voting machine or electronic device resembling a cash machine may be established. There are no polling stations in the state of Oregon, here ballots are sent to people (who must register some weeks before the Election Day) by mail and are sent back.

The Americans seem to be glad with absence of unified rules. If the majority considers a procedure to be ineffective, it can always be changed. for instance, 6 years ago some states began to use machine voting, but have recently returned to paper system, in particular in Florida and some counties in Virginia and Maryland.

Besides 47-year old democrat Barack Obama and 72-year old republican John McCain, more than 20 candidates run in the current elections. However, it is just a formality, as there are only two real candidates. One of them will become the 44t President of the United States, who will assume office on January 20, 2009, at noon.