Collapse

In many branches of industry in Belarus in November as compared to October considerable decrease of volume of output was observed, admitted the national Statistics Committee. In general the decline in production in November was 13.8%. It is a record decline in production in a month. It hasn’t been observed since war time.

The decline has taken place in metal-fabricating industries – by 20.6%, in woodwork, timber and paper-and-pulp industry by 11.5%, in construction materials industry by 9.8%, in light industry by 9.5%, in chemical and petrochemical industry by 9.3%, in food-manufacturing industry by 5.8%, “Nasha Niva” informs.

In fuel-producing industry production output remained at the level of October, in iron industry it has increased by 5.5%, in electrical energy industry by 14%.

According to the estimates of socio-economic development for the year 2008, production output is to grow by 11%. Though the results of January-November as compared to January-November last year still show increase thanks to the boom of the first months, it is clear that the planned level cannot be reached without manipulations with statistics.

Forecasts are the most pessimistic: experts speak about possible further recession by 10% in the last month of the year. Belarus hadn’t experienced such a recession since the beginning of 199, when aftermaths of default in Russia in 1998 told. As for industrial production decline, such a sharp decline in one month hadn’t been recorded either in 1999 or in the hardest months of the economic crisis of 1992-1994. Last time industrial production decline was so abrupt only during the war.

Meanwhile the real crisis in Russia is to start only in the beginning of the next year, and the first half a year is to be particularly difficult, experts say. Recession is to all branches of economy. And Belarus remains dependant on Russian sales markets, so it would be inevitably hit by their collapse.