Will Lukashenka declare New Economic Policy?

An attempt of Belarusian economic model to avoid shocking therapy has faced a foreign energy shock.

Talks about unique Belarusian model are heard more seldom over the last time. Numerous round tables with experts and meetings of officials drew a line under the theme of the uniqueness: it doesn’t admit of doubt that this uniqueness was based on energy grants from Russia, the newspaper «“Belorusy i Rynok”» writes.

An attempt of Belarusian economic model to avoid shocking therapy has faced a foreign energy shock. Our model didn’t show its unique character – it responded to market by rejecting population a part of social subsidies, sale of state property, attracting foreign loans. The only difference is that in 1990-ies countries in transition took credits from the International Monetary Fund, but now we are taking state loans from Russia, China and even ready to incur them from Venezuela.

At the same time votes for further market steps (well-known and logical in a transmission period) are heard at different levels – directors, officials, businessmen spoke about them. These steps are attracting direct foreign investments (not credits), giving to directors the freedom of pricing, equipment deliverers, material encouragements of employees, etc.

But these actions are on the stage of discussion or come into practice in forms of some tactical steps by the authorities like behind-the-scene meetings with investors or abolishing of artificially created obstacles like Golden Share. But we have no guarantees that this institute will never come back with signing another decree.

One main thing is obviously missing when the further economic development is discussed: some important words must be said at the highest level, if not a developed programme, then at least conceptual theses of our further way and means, by which the state is going to achieve the aim, must be read out aloud.

As a rule, Lukashenka addresses the people and the “national assembly” in April-May. Will we hear from Lukashenka anything sensible concerning the new economic policy or his speech will be reduced to shouts at directors of enterprises and calls to fulfil 5-year plans?

PS: The New Economic Policy (NEP) was an economic policy of the government of the Soviet Union from 1921 to 1928, proposed to prevent the Soviet economy from collapsing. Allowing some capitalist ventures, the NEP allowed small businesses to reopen for private profit while the state continued to control banks, foreign trade, and large industries.