Forecast about chances of Lukashenka to repeat destiny of Milosevic comes true

Politologists believe the statement of a European Commission representative, who said participation of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in the forthcoming democratic elections would contradict democratic principles, wasn’t an occasion.

“The forecasts about Lukashenka’s little chance of preserving power and probability to repeat the destiny of Milosevic are coming true,” Bogdan Bezpalko, Director for the Center of Ukraine and Belarus Studies of Moscow State University told an IA REGNUM correspondent on December 15. He commented the statement of an anonymous representative of the European Commission, who said participation of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in the forthcoming presidential elections would contradict democratic principles.

“This unofficial remark gave a clear understanding that the EU leadership doesn’t expect Lukashenka to keep his power even on a condition he will lead the country forward to western structures,” the expert notes.

“The EU thinks Belarus is in a rather vulnerable situation between Russian oligarchs from one side and the EU and IMF from the other side. As western analysts supposes that Belarus will have to go to West in any case, because this way is more comfortable for the country than controlling by Russian tycoons. This story can probably be a provocation to some degree aiming at appeasing Russian elite to gain its support after all recent unfriendly steps by the Belarusian authorities, or steps that were done by Belarus,” the politologist noted.

“These are non-recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Lukashenka’s meetings with Viktor Yushchenko and the Pope, a number of other actions. We need to watch developments now to understand what the message of this unofficial comment was,” Bogdan Bezpalko concluded.

As we have informed, an anonymous EC representative told the press during the visit of Belarusian journalists to Brussels on December 7-11 that participation of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in the forthcoming presidential election in Belarus would contradict democratic principles. According to BelaPAN, the official also said Belarus needs foreign economic aid and Belarus can become controlled by Russian oligarchs, in case Minsk refuses to carry out democratic reforms.