Russia compares Lukashenka with Castro – it’s time for him to quit

Making relations with an authoritarian, and not a democratic leader, one’s foothold makes a major power a pawn in manipulations

“Our little Castro” – under such a title an article is published in today’s Vedomosti newspaper (Russia).

The end of the political life of the Cuban leader Fidel Castro is not yet in sight, and there is such a desire to strike a balance! Over the 50 years of Castor o in power, Cubans’ standards of living has not changed in fact, though it has grown several times in other countries. One of the secrets which are to be revealed, is: how a regime could be maintained in a little and weak in terms of its military capacities county, using the energy of much stronger countries? Quite possibly, Fidel’s story can help to understand the conduct of the Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who had adopted a number of steps recently as a snub to the current Russian leadership.

Everyone knows that since the beginning of the 1960ies and till the end of the 1980ies Cube enjoyed friendship and material support of Russia. However it is interesting that Fidel’s rule started with a completely different friendship. Having seized power after Batista's government was overthrown; the newly-minted Prime minister went on a long visit to the US to establish relations. But he failed, as it is hard to rest on support of revolutionary poor masses and defend rights of large owners (as America needed). Fidel feared interference of the US in the struggle for power in Cuba, hurried for help of the opposing side in the cold war.

Everyone knows the story of the dramatic standoff of the two military superpowers during Caribbean crisis. In short, the USSR deployed nuclear missiles to Cube, and the US threatened blockade of the island and inspections of the ships going there. The Soviet Union withdrew missiles in exchange for removing US military bases from Turkey and Italy, and evidently security guarantees for the Cuban government. Was it a draw? Yes, if we not consider a person who received a big prize due to efforts of others. It is not clear what Russia has received for the long years of supporting socialist Cuba. Fidel received a possibility to consolidate and maintain power while his home policy was incompetent and external policy was impudent (the country was one of the main economic failures of the 20ies century, but was a source of “inspiration” for others).

Fidel’s story is not an easy case. As Vedomosti write, the 20ies century knows many examples when a local kinglet or socialist leader underpinned his regime eating from two hands. It is a lesson for Russia concerning Lukashenka: making relations with the authoritarian, and not democratically elected leader one’s foothold could bring some short-term advantages, but makes major powers pawns in manipulations by that leader. Attempts of big countries to put pressure on such a political figure with the help of economic leverage would result in fall of living standards of the population and entrenchment of his power. If Lukashenka were answerable to voters or his regime was limited by an oppositional parliament, he would have much less possibilities for manipulating in the external policy.

And in general, Russia learns to little from the mistakes of the US in Latin Ameri8ca over the last two centuries. It can be a better pupil, Vedomosti writes.