Harry Kasparov: Lukashenka’s downfall to cause changes in Russia

One of the leaders of Russian opposition Harry Kasparov has taken part in Oslo Freedom Forum.

The politician bestowed the Václav Havel Prize to dissenters from China, Burma and Saudi Arabia. In an exclusive interview to Radio Svaboda he shared his vision of Russian-Belarusian relations.

- What for Putin needs Lukashenka?

- It is impossible to give a monosyllabic reply to this question. Firstly, in this situation every remaining dictator is an important moral support for Putin. That is why Vladimir Putin supports and will support Bashar Assad to the last. And taking into account the tendencies which have shaped after the Arab Spring, any threat to a dictatorship in the countries of the near abroad is viewed as a threat to himself by Putin. It is obvious that nothing even remotely reminding democracy will ever appear in Belarus under Lukashenka. That suits Putin well.

- Do recent dispersals of meetings in Moscow demonstrate that Putin is following the path of Lukashenka?

- I would not say it is Lukashenka’s path. In fact, it is a path of any dictator. Going downhill, one has only one direction of movement. There is obvious logics in the fact that starting from a certain point, dictators who want rule the country for the life term, have to step up their position more and more, and to use more and more aggressive measures against dissenters. That is why Putin is going this way. He certainly has some limitations, as unlike Lukashenka, he has to look back at the reaction of the world. But it is clear that it is getting less and less important. Anyway, consequences of certain harsh measures aimed at dispersal or, God forbid, shooting, are sure to echo in some way in the future. And dictators feel that dissenters are a threat to their power even today. That is why as it seems to me, such unity of actions and methods, demonstrated by Putin and Lukashenka, fits well into the picture of development of any such dictatorship.

- If you come to power, in which way Russian-Belarusian relations would develop?

- Let us hope that in the nearest future we shall succeed in achieving changes in Russia and Belarus without any awful upheavals. Unfortunately, Lukashenka and Putin demonstrate firmness to stay till the end at any cost. And the question is, what would be the cost of departing from the dictatorship for the nations of Russia and Belarus. The cost would be affected by what kind of the society it would be. To my mind, changes in Russia are to result in changes in Belarus immediately. It is not excluded that the opposite is true as well. Lukashenka’s downfall (though it is hard to imagine for me how it could happen in the near future) can also influence the situation in Moscow greatly. I think that at the today’s stage Putin and Lukashenka’s regimes are already interdependent. It is obvious that Lukashenka is dependent on Putin to the degree Putin is more powerful. However their genetic kinship could not be concealed. So I hope that when this genetic monster which is parasitizing on the body of Russia and on the body of Belarus disappears, it would be possible to establish normal relations of the two countries which are close to each other, and which are going to be apparent allies in the long run historically, I am sure.

- Are they to be independent, or to exist in the framework of the Union?

- It seems to me that this is a question which should not be solved now. In general, I am a supporter of a wide Eurasian integration. From my point of view, only a common economic space from Vladivostok to Lisbon offers a hope that a half of Russia is not going to turn into china in the short historical term. So it seems to me that a union of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine would be successfully realized in the framework of the common European space. I would see exactly this European integration as a historical perspective. We all belong to this European house, with certain reservations, that today the European project is undergoing a crisis. All that is clear. Nevertheless, I see the historical vector for Russia and Belarus in a European, Western direction.