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Freedom House: Belarus dictatorship fears popular uprisings

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Freedom House: Belarus dictatorship fears popular uprisings

The situation with democracy only in Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan is worse than in Belarus.

Freedom House released the findings from Nations in Transit 2012 on June 6 - and will host events in London on June 6 and in Brussels on June 7 to discuss the findings. Nations in Transit provides comprehensive analysis of democratic development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Eurasia. This year's report identifies increasing vulnerability in the young democracies of the European Union, warning that rising antidemocratic tendencies in Hungary and Ukraine have the potential to take root elsewhere in the region.

Negative developments in Hungary and Ukraine are at the forefront of an antidemocratic trend in Central and Eastern Europe that raises serious questions about the durability of the European Union’s young democracies, as well as prospects for aspiring members, according to a report released by Freedom House today. Nations in Transit 2012 is the latest edition of Freedom House’s annual analysis of democratic development in Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia. At a time of growing economic uncertainty, the report warns of rising antidemocratic tendencies in Hungary and Ukraine that have the potential to take root elsewhere in the region.

“Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán and Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, under the pretext of so-called reforms, have been systematically breaking down critical checks and balances,” said David J. Kramer, president of Freedom House. “They appear to be pursuing the ‘Putinization’ of their countries, which is ironic, given that in Russia itself Putinism has been largely discredited over the past year, as ordinary Russians increasingly seek guarantees of government accountability and transparency.”

“As we see the high achievers of the past two decades, the new EU states, showing signs of trouble, it is time for a greater international focus on the deepening challenges to democratic consolidation in Central and Southeastern Europe,” said Sylvana Habdank-Kołaczkowska, project director for Nations in Transit.

In Russia, fraudulent parliamentary elections and the promise of a predetermined presidential succession sparked widespread protests in December, but the authorities refrained from massive crackdowns against civil society. However, the regime continued to use the judiciary as a means of intimidating and persecuting activists, and to defend or deny the authorities’ role in the 2009 death of whistleblowing lawyer Sergey Magnitsky.

The role of money in politics and the economic vulnerability of media outlets are among the issues that should raise concern about the depth and durability of democracy in new EU states. The challenge to democracy is exacerbated by the ongoing economic crisis, as governments struggle to impose unpopular austerity measures.

Declines were most numerous in the judicial framework and independence category, appearing in every subregion covered by Nations in Transit. A total of eight countries—Albania, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine—regressed on this indicator.

Belarus is a consolidated autocratic regime, in which the economy is controlled by the state with the exception of some limited activity in the private sector.  Since coming to power in 1994, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s political strategy has centered on creating revenue from external economic rents and using them to establish a kind of social contract with the population, providing sustained social welfare in exchange for public loyalty.  External rents, mostly from Russia, come in the form of oil and gas subsidies, but also in the form of special conditions in regional customs agreements and support in deterring international pressure for implementing reforms. In 2007, Russia, a longtime sponsor of the Lukashenka regime, began to withdraw the massive energy subsidies upon which Lukashenka’s personalistic rule and Belarus’s “socially oriented” model of unreformed, command-style economy were largely built. The removal of this stabilizing factor forced the state to embark on a partial transformation of its socioeconomic model.  Pressure of the worldwide financial crisis, Western sanctions, Russia’s war with Georgia, and energy conflicts with Moscow forced the government to free political prisoners, relax repression on democratic activists, and initiate liberalization of the business climate, along with some unpopular reforms in the social sphere. Minor progress in market reforms and human rights was enough to renew hopes of a thaw in Belarus’s relations with the West, bring Belarus to the European Union’s Eastern Partnership Program, and secure stabilization loans from the International Monetary Fund.

Unable to depend on Moscow’s support, Lukashenka courted the EU’s recognition of his December 2010 reelection by marginally increasing the freedom of media, political, and civil society actors in the months preceding the December 19 vote. Domestically, the president also bolstered his support with economic incentives, raising the average salary in Belarus close to US$500 a month. As in previous years, opposition campaigns suffered from disunity and self-defeating political tactics; nevertheless, an unprecedented nine candidates were allowed to collect signatures, campaign via state-owned media, and appear on the ballot next to the incumbent president.

The crackdown that ensued on December 19 led to the imprisonment of 7 out of 9 presidential candidates and a wave of arrests and intimidation of the political opposition, terminating any hope of a thaw in Lukashenka’s authoritarian rule. In 2011, the government responded to a growing economic crisis and consequent decline in public support by preemptively repressing the political opposition and civil society organizations. Opposition members and other activists involved in the anti-Lukashenka demonstrations of December 2010 suffered intense reprisals during the year, with a hundreds of arrests and sentences passed down in January and June–July 2011.

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