29 March 2024, Friday, 10:05
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Leonidas Donskis: Lifting Sanctions Is Carrot, but There May Be Stick

Leonidas Donskis: Lifting Sanctions Is Carrot, but There May Be Stick

The EU has no clear strategy with regard to Belarus. Current activities are just manoeuvre and improvisation.

Lithuanian philosopher, former member of the European Parliament from Lithuania Leonidas Donskis told charter97.org. He says Lukashenka is a foxy manipulator. However, lifting sanctions is a carrot, but in case of Russian military base in Belarus there will be a stick.

- The EU lifted sanctions against Belarus, equally as the USA did the same in respect to some enterprises. What do you think about such Western steps towards the Belarusian regime?

- The Western community has no single and clear strategy. I think it's some kind of improvisation, or, most likely, another maneuver. Doing this the West makes it clear to Mr. Lukashenka that if he obeys minimum integrity and human rights, then he may hope for cooperation and some dialogues. Otherwise, it is hard to understand it.

Sometimes Belarus is behind Russia in human rights issue, for instance, with its death penalty not exercised in Russia. I used to explore the issue when I worked in the European Parliament. Everyone understands maneuvers are needed.

On the one hand, it's the country with pro-European part of society and elite. And, therefore, for the sake of future both of Belarus and all its neighbours, including Lithuania, it is very important to give signs to dialogue. And even not to Lukashenka. He is a foxy manipulator and always ready to play a deep game between the Kremlin and the EU. But, these signs are most likely given to the Belarusian civil society and opposition.

Participation in Minsk accords served him the good turn. He was a situation facilitator, Germany and France accepted it. It (lifting sanctions - charter97.org's note) is the carrot of Germany and France for his good behaviour during Minsk negotiations.

- It became possible to say he was not the last dictator in Europe. But it doesn't really matter, the very sense of 'dictator' does not change...

- You're absolutely right, he is the dictator. There could be some comparative pseudo-analyses or studies of differences between Mr. Putin and Mr. Lukashenka, but Russia, love it or hate it, despite the fact that the US exceeds it in economy and technology is of great importance. It proves it in quite a brutal way, and even in the Middle East it's extremely important to sit down at the table with it and start negotiating. Belarus, surely, cannot hope for such significance on the international arena. So, Lukashenka turns to be a local dictator.

It makes no difference, but he is foxy and cunning. By the way, he flirts well with a Belarusian idea. Facts that Belarus retains sovereignty, and Lukashenka dares speaking Belarusian from time to time testify that he give signs: listen, I'm not as bad as you think. I'm better than the divided opposition. So, he plays brilliant.

Russian analysts and political scientists say Putin is not very fond of Aliaksandr Ryhoravich. But he misses alternative. And the same thing, Lukashenka tells the society: where is the alternative? So, Lukashenka plays a deep game on an artificially created vacuum.

I'm not going to compare Lukashenka with other dictators. There are crazy people in North Korea, terrible ones in Putin's inner circle, who needs war to retain status quo. Lukashenka cannot be compared to any of them. But, as soon as we touch upon the Euro standards, then he turns to be in the dictator list - non-observance of human rights, European norms, and political morality.

- The EU shoots Niagara. We saw his activities and noted what it resulted in. No one can guarantee that Lukashenka will not go off at a tangent and not imprison people on political grounds again...

- You are absolutely right. I talked a lot to Belarusian and Russian civil rights activists and I know that they always loose heart when the EU launches any documents on progress in Belarus. Oh, Lord, what are you talking about? I was confused when one of our Lithuanian euro deputies proclaimed a progress in Belarus. Belarusian civil rights activists, damped by it, started protesting. Referring to ostpolitik of Willy Brandt, he said: "We should work with him, after all." But the world has changed. That was the time of the Cold War and the USSR was so dangerous that we had to negotiate. But now the situation differs a lot. We know what is going on, but still give signs of some satisfaction, it cannot but disappoint civil rights activists and opposition in Belarus. So it's very ambiguous and ambivalent signal.

-You say that Lukashenka managed to retain independence, but Belarus is actually fully loaded with Russian integration projects, money, benefits and others. What could the EU hope for?

- It is carrot and stick approach. But again, if there is a carrot, there could be a stick. If Russian base is placed in Belarus, there will be the stick approach applied. Sanctions will be implemented, NATO will take steps to strengthen positions in the Baltic states, Poland. Now it is not needed.

Let's call a spade a spade - the EU misses clear strategy in respect to Belarus. It's just improvisation. We blame Vladimir Vladimirovich or laugh at him, call him the opportunist, who acts the way he feels and observes results. But, pardon me, the EU experience the same with Belarus. First, it does something then analyzes: well, what has been done. No strategy causes a bare opportunist approach. So, we observe it now.

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