Sochi associations for Eurointegrators

After the Riga summit torments about the prospects of cooperation with the "Eastern" partners, Brussels came up, as they believe, with something new.

Following the abandonment of actual value requirements for the participants of the Eastern Partnership in favor of trade and economic pragmatism, the current guardians of the basic EU values engaged in the preparation of a new version of the association agreement.

As it became known, it will be for two of the six "Eastern" partners of the European Union, which are not meant to be associated with it a free trade zone in the foreseeable future. Two such special partners are Belarus and Armenia. A specific reason for their relations with the EU is that they joined the Eurasian Economic Union, which is rightly called a Putin's geopolitical project. It provides for the right of the Kremlin for the post-Soviet space as a sphere of its national interests. Putin's project rejects the understanding of the competitive space proposed by the EU.

Today the increased competition between projects of European and Eurasian integration is a fact. The Brussels born idea about the association with the Belarusian and Armenian members of Putin's project is still poorly understood. According to the EU officials, the new agreement is intended to act as an instrument through which the EU will somehow try to help partners of the European integration process, remaining in Russia's sphere of influence. According to some reports, in their formal and informal contacts numerous conspirators of the Foreign Ministry and other Belarusian state and non-state institutions are trying to play along with this meaningful hint. It is no secret that this "European waltz" with two "Eastern" partners is very closely watched by the Kremlin.

As soon as there appeared information about the new version of the agreement for two "Eastern" partners and instant agreement of Yerevan with the EU move, the Kremlin's reaction was not long in coming. According to the president Serzh Sargsyan, his country and Russia signed an agreement on formation of prices for the supplies of the Russian natural gas. And the decrease is $25 per cubic meter.

The price of the Russian gas was reduced in view of Armenia's joining the Eurasian Economic Union. Currently, duty-free supplies of natural gas to Armenia amounted to more than 1 billion cubic meters. It is hardly necessary to guess, how the gas agreement with Russia will affect the so-called new variant of the Association Agreement with the EU. It definitely will. It only remains to wait for all the details of this draft agreement. Brussels would not disclose the specific terms of its readiness.

Nevertheless, despite the predominantly skeptical assessment of the Eastern Partnership prospects, there is also another, positive assessment. For example, in Yerevan. In contrast to Minsk, opposition there in parliament really works. So, one of its prominent representatives, deputy Tevan Poghosyan believes that an important result of the Riga summit is the new approach to the relations with its neighbors declared by the EU. It is an individual approach, which has been called "a flexible approach to each country participating in the Eastern Partnership project.

According to him, there is a new opportunity for Armenia in the negotiation of a new legal framework for relations with the EU. That is the efforts by both sides to overcome obstacles made on 3 September 2013 which froze the relationship will be continued. It is worth recalling that at the time, under the strong "gas" pressure from Moscow the Armenian leadership was forced to sharply restrain its ardor towards the European integration which took Brussels by surprise. Then, as you know, the then Ukrainian President Yanukovych made a similar trick at the summit of the Eastern "partners" in Vilnius, by refusing to sign an association agreement with the EU.

In contrast to Kyiv, the presidential trick with the EU in Yerevan did not cause such a violent reaction of citizens, although the reaction of the opposition in parliament could be heard. And now, based on the personal opinion of Tevan Poghosian, Armenia has step by step again started to move towards European integration. But this time it happened to the music of "electromaidan" in Yerevan. Today, both Moscow and Brussels, are watching its second series. The communal protests in Armenia start to be politicized. According to some Armenian and other experts, the viability of the Eurasian Economic Union as a whole is in question. And all the warnings of the Eurasian Economic Community opponents in Armenia have now become much stronger.

Experts note that with increasing frequency there appeared problems with most of Putin's Eurasian Economic Community. This was also recognized by the participants of the recent meeting of the heads of the EurAsEC governments in Grodno. It may be noted that Medvedev did land in Grodno, but there was no trace of his Kazakh counterpart, although the arrival of the guest from Astana had been announced at the meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the Eurasian Union. Some observers saw in his absence some connection with the recent measures to protect the market of Astana in Kazakhstan. Perhaps there were other reasons for the incomplete team of Prime Ministers in the Grodno event, which was not discussed out loud.

But on the very next day after the Grodno event their Belarusian counterpart suddenly found himself in Milan, where he signed the Milan Charter - a document in the field of world food security, designed specifically for the exhibition EXPO-2015. As far as we know, he had no meetings in Milan that would be important for the European integration. This sudden appearance of the Belarusian Prime Minister at the international exhibition, it seems, puts an end to unofficial information about the possible presence there of the Belarusian ruler. And the Eurasian event in Grodno was noted by the announcement of the board chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), Viktor Khristenko, about the creation of a "common economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok", which is only perceived as propaganda. After all, the current state of relations between Moscow and the united Europe has long term negative dynamics.

So say many politicians and experts in both the East and the West. Therefore, no indifference of Kremlin is expected about the appearance of some new options for involving the "Eastern" partners in the European space. While the reaction against Armenia over such EU plans involving gas prices already followed, Belarus is still waiting for it. The forthcoming meeting of Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi on 18 September could be promising.

According to official information, there will be a meeting of the Second Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus. Among the Forum participants will be the leadership of the Russian Federal Assembly and the National Assembly of Belarus, the Standing Committee of the "Union State", the heads of the key ministries, departments and heads of the executive and legislative bodies of the regions of the two countries. "The Forum will sign a number of bilateral agreements on cooperation between the Russian and Belarusian regions," said the press statement.

The upcoming forum in Sochi will take place a week after another forum in Kiev. As you know, there was held the 12th annual representative meeting of Yalta European Strategy (YES). After the annexation of Crimea, the YES participants were forced to meet not in Yalta but in Kiev. And the current union forum in Sochi might s well be perceived as Eurasian NO to the European YES. Especially after the public statements of Putin and other officials in the Russian government that Russia is turning to the East. That is, from Europe to China.

As you know, another "eastern" partner of the EU - Belarus- is looking the same way. However, according to the Foreign Minister of Luxembourg now in charge of the EU Presidency, in Belarus there is no movement in the negative direction. "Europe must not miss the opportunity that comes with this country. No need thinking about the regime, you need to think about the population," summed up Jean Asselborn. However, the European diplomat did not elaborate in what exactly he saw in Belarus "movement not in the negative direction" . Is the forced pardon of the group of political prisoners sufficient for those who conceived a new version of the "Eastern Partnership" for Belarus as a neighbor of the EU? It seems that the authors of this invention are in the next "phase of the modernization of the" dialogue with the official Minsk, which still cannot even stand the word "reform."

Its representatives in numerous conversations with European officials have asked to use only such words as "modernization", "innovation", but not "reform." This behavior of the Belarusian officials may cause in European interlocutors only a condescending irony. The main thing is to have the essential changes and no matter how they are called, believe in the Brussels offices. But the much-needed systemic change is not there. And this is stated by the most competent experts and other observers of the current Belarusian performance.

It should also be noted that it was decided to hold such a representative forum in Sochi on Friday September 18 not in the summer, like last year, but almost a month before the presidency reboot in Belarus. Whether this forum will encourage associations such as the Good Friday? Clearly, the forum itself could show.

According to the President of the Republic of Poland (1995 - 2005), Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) Aleksander Kwasniewski, in fact, none of the politicians know what the policy of Putin will be. "This policy is unexpected," he states.

Roman Yakovlevsky, political observer, for charter97.org