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Lukashenko - a wolf in sheep's clothing

Lukashenko - a wolf in sheep's clothing
Łukasz Wenerski
Photo by POLSKIERADIO.PL

Poland has repeatedly stated that it would like to see Belarus as a strong, independent and democratic European country.

Being under the rule of Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus, unfortunately, has been moving in the opposite direction. The hopes for the cooperation between Poland and Belarus have not materialized. Culminating in mass arrests of opposition and dispersals of mass meetings, presidential elections of 2010 exacerbated the relations of Belarus with foreign partners and resulted in sharp criticism of the Belarusian regime. After the December events, Lukashenko repeatedly accused Poland and, for example, Germany, of the attempts of coup d'état and overthrow of the constitutional regime in Belarus.

In 2011, in response to the persecution of the Belarusian opposition and repressions against protesting citizens, Polish authorities denied access to their country for Alexander Lukashenko and some other Belarusian officials. Against this background, diplomatic relations were frozen - no joint projects were planned and no meetings were held between high officials of those countries. However, the Polish government strongly supported Belarusian population, for example, by providing free university education to Belarusian students expelled from Belarusian higher education institutions because of the participation in demonstrations against the political regime. In short, Poland tried to create favorable domestic conditions for entry, employment and business.

The relations between Poland and Belarus have recently undergone some changes. Most sanctions imposed on Belarus have been lifted due to the release of political prisoners and mediation of Belarus in the process of Ukrainian conflict resolution. The list of sanctions that have been lifted includes a ban on entry into the European Union for the president and 170 Belarusian officials.

The starting point of a new policy towards Belarus was a change in the strategy of the "European Neighborhood Policy". Stability in this region has become a priority, while such issues as democracy and human rights have been relegated to the background. The reason for the sharp change in the EU’s policy was the geopolitical situation in the region. Because of the policy of Russia, Kremlin's aggression against Ukraine, the war in Syria and the migration crisis, the EU is trying to protect itself against potential conflicts that could cause destabilization.

The Polish authorities’ response on the EU-wide trend came quite quickly. In late March, Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski visited Belarus. The Polish guest's visit incorporated political, economic and emotional factors. The issues discussed during the visit were the following: the project of small border traffic, the activities of Polish educational institutions in Belarus and the problems of the Polish minority.

Is a new policy of the Polish authorities appropriate? Yes and no. Many analysts dealing with Belarusian theme emphasize that although Lukashenko is not the ideal partner in the international arena, there is no any alternative yet; hence, one has to try to cooperate with him. In this article, we do not criticize this approach, but we try to provide some food for thought on the choice of politicians and regimes that we want to “fraternize” with.

Is it the right time for the opposition?

“It is not the European Union that has changed its policy towards Belarus, but it is Minsk that has adjusted its policies by freeing political prisoners and carrying out last year’s election campaign quite differently than five years ago. The EU’s joint decision to lift sanctions can be considered as a new chance for Belarus and a signal of the EU’s readiness to develop a dialogue with Minsk. Poland purposefully supported this decision” - said Polish Foreign Minister Waszczykowski, summing up his visit to Belarus and meeting with Lukashenko.

Indeed, six political prisoners, including Mikalai Statkevich, opposition presidential candidate of 2010 elections, were released in August 2015. However, unanswered remains the question as to why the Polish and European authorities believe (or maybe just pretend to believe) that this time Lukashenko’s changed policy will be sustainable in the long term. We should remind that quite similar situation was already observed in 2008. The attempt to normalize relations with the West (most likely to get a loan from the IMF) led to release of three political prisoners, including Alexander Kozulin, a presidential candidate at the elections of 2006. "Relaxation" period ended quickly - with a crackdown after the presidential elections in 2010.

It should be emphasized that the release of political prisoners is only "a one-time event" in the series of events of the destruction of the political opposition. Many politicians, activists and journalists were forced to leave the country. This positive gesture by the Belarusian authorities should not overshadow their real essence - Belarus is a despotic country, where one can end up in prison under absolutely any pretext. Polish government should keep this in mind and interpret any “pro-democratic” actions of Lukashenko with a caution.

Ex-presidential candidate Ales Mikhalevich claims that: “In our country, one can institute criminal proceedings against each citizen under any pretext, bring the case before the courts, and then the court decides that the person is guilty. Thousands of entrepreneurs and even - I dare say - tens of thousands of people have passed through this in Belarus. Therefore, the level of non-freedom in Belarus is very high.”

More transparent elections?

Commenting on his visit to Minsk, Polish Foreign Minister Waszczykowski stressed that the policy towards Belarus changed due to the fact that the election campaign had been held somewhat differently than 5 years ago. Indeed, there were no such demonstrations and spectacular arrests as in 2010. Nevertheless, does this mean that Lukashenko softened his stance?

The answer is quite different - during the past five years a part of the opposition was successfully dismantled (some had to leave the country, others ended up in prison) and the remainder was intimidated. That is why nobody protested in 2015. Few would dare to go through the hell that was 5 years ago.

The widespread practice of falsification of the election results in Belarus is met by the West with disbelief. After the elections, a few ventured to say how signature collectors were coming to their houses and offices and were requiring them to vote for the candidate, whose name had already been written on the ballot paper. Namely, employees of schools, hospitals and other public institutions were obliged to collect signatures for the indicated on the ballot paper candidate, even though those employees were not members of the initiative group.

The chance for the development of economic cooperation?

The next step on the way to normalization of relations with Belarus will be the development of economic cooperation. Minister of Development Mateusz Morawiecki and Polish Prime Minister are planning to visit Belarus as well, right after the visit of Waszczykowski. We should once again ask the question - what problems the Polish Prime Minister will face while trying to create the “new profile” of economic relations with Belarus?

The answer to this question – creation of economic relations would be quite problematic. Over the past years, there have been some negative changes, which affected the competitiveness of the Belarusian economy. Foreign exchange reserves have been depleted to 4.6 billion dollars. Enterprises delay payment of wages, move to a part-time work scheme and send employees on unpaid leave.

In order to improve the budgetary situation of the country, Belarusian authorities are trying to obtain external loans and charge extra fees. “If there is no new funding, reducing the income of the population is inevitable,” - notes the analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky.

Lukashenko sees the West (including Poland) as a source of the economic benefits and a strong medicine for a depleted economy. It does not really matter whether Russia or Europe will volunteer to help. The promised loans give Lukashenko the hope that he will be able to hold out without sound economic reforms.

The big problem in the development of economic relations is the corruption in Belarus. Through deals with the authorities, every corrupt businessperson or managerial employee of any institution can escape from criminal responsibility. Moreover, many examples show that these people can return to their jobs, often at high-level positions. Involvement of the Polish business in these circumstances is not a very good idea.

Positive trends in the cooperation between Poland and Belarus

The authors of this article have tried to show that although Lukashenko is trying to create an image of a reasonable politician and international mediator, he continues to be a wolf in sheep's clothing. The Polish authorities must keep distance from his politics, as it may happen that all hopes for any change in Belarus will be in vain.

However, this does not mean that Poland would not seize the emerged opportunity. Above all, we should ensure that the changes in Polish-Belarusian relations bring the maximum benefit to the Belarusian and Polish population.

Firstly, the Polish government must ensure that small border traffic between Poland and Belarus starts to work as quickly as possible. Small border traffic will allow inhabitants of border areas to go to the neighboring country without a visa. According to experts, the development of small border traffic will help to strengthen business contacts, social and cultural relations and will serve as a strong economic stimulus. The project for the development of small border traffic was ready long time ago, however, in early 2011, it was frozen due to the decision of the Belarusian authorities. It is necessary to solve this problem. We can use traffic between two Polish voivodships and the Kaliningrad region as an example in order to discern positive economic effects of this initiative. Small border traffic with Kaliningrad remains one of the few existing initiatives of the Polish-Russian relations, which operates effectively despite the difficult relations between the two countries.

Another important task that Poland should implement is to settle a mechanism for obtaining visas for Belarusians and contribute to the opening of new visa centers. Moreover, it should solve a number of problems associated with the registration of the visa via the internet (the residents are still facing such difficulties). These problems are primarily related to the activities of intermediaries, or hackers, as well as to the abuse of power and corruption.

Finally, another issue that needs to be addressed is the situation of the Polish minority in Belarus. The current policy of the new Polish government shows that the situation of minority will be an important aspect of foreign operations in Poland. If Poland achieves some progress in relationship with Belarus, it would mean an absolute success of Polish diplomacy.

Lukasz Wenerski, Julia Gudacz, Institute for Public Policy (Poland), specially for charter97.org

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