Russia To Bring Troops Into Belarus In Summer

Only Belarusian people themselves can resist the aggressor.

The famous Ukrainian analyst, military expert and blogger Aleksei Arestovich wrote about this on Facebook:

"While everybody was waiting for some mean tricks from the Kremlin somewhere in the Baltic countries or Odessa, Putin found a "simple and elegant" way - to occupy Belarus.

Russian troops, which will come into the country this summer under the auspices of the large-scale maneuvers "West-2017", most likely, will stay here after (at least partially).

This will bring several major benefits to Russia:

1. Ukraine immediately faces the threat of war not only at two fronts (East and South) but at three fronts.

We will be forced to respond adequately, which means:

– increasing of the size of the armed forces, the deployment of troops at the Belarusian direction,

– increase of the burden on the defense budget and the economy as a whole, the slowdown of high-tech development programs of the armed forces in favor of a "simple" increase of the number of land troops,

– possibility of new waves of mobilization, and, respectively, the complication of internal political situation, which will be caused also by the entire Kremlin propaganda machine; all this, combined with an active political struggle in Ukraine (for example, the election campaign to the Verkhovna Rada), can significantly weaken the negotiating position of the country regarding the issues concerning solving of

Donbas and Crimea problems;

2. Creation of immediate threat to the Baltic States and Poland.

One thing - threatening statements and airplane overflights, and the other – troops, unfolded in close proximity.

Poles, Balts, and other Europeans will suddenly realize that the war is not somewhere far in Syria or in Donbas, but it is here - right at the doorstep. That this small, cozy world of wind generators and good roads has become a potential area of military conflict between Russia and NATO with all its "enchanting" consequences for the population, industry, ecology and geography.

What will Europeans do? They will want to bargain. Especially if our beloved grandfather Trump really minimizes US involvement in European security, as he has already promised.

How do you think, what Russia will demand from Europe in such negotiations? That's right - the Ukraine.

At the very least, this will guarantee us a substantial reduction of support, maybe the lifting of sanctions, and the new Munich agreement is also not excluded in this situation.

3. The occupation of Belarus greatly problematizes the "Intermarum" project and wider – any project of the Baltic-Black Sea Union.

As, under all circumstances, Belarus is a key structural unit of such projects.

The advance of the Russian attack force directly to the borders of Poland strengthens the Russian influence in Eastern Europe greatly.

Influence is something that really has weight and is measured in politics. This is a subject of bargaining and negotiation.

The ability of European elites, vitiated by 70-year-old greenhouse conditions under the umbrella of NATO security, to butt with Russia seriously, consolidated and radically, to choose my words carefully, causes very strong doubts.

Thus, the military-political situation in Eastern (and later in whole) Europe will be changed radically this summer.

The West has no formal reason to file a protest against soft occupation of Belarus: Belarus and Russia are in a union state.

Let me remind you that Russia started the war with Georgia with the exercises "Caucasus-2008" and deployed a group aimed at the occupation of the Crimea during the exercises "Caucasus-2012".

Abilities of Ukraine to neutralize the Russian game in Belarus are also very, very limited – due to a combination of factors: starting with the short-sightedness of the political leadership and finishing with a very probable internal crisis, in which we are crawling.

The people of Belarus could make true resistance to the aggressor.

Unfortunately, to a certain extent Belarus is a political black box, the actual processes in which (for example, the degree of understanding of the threats by the Belarusian military-political leadership, the willingness of the Belarusian people to resist) are very difficult to estimate.

However, we can outline some scenarios.

Scenario number 1.

Lukashenka and a significant part of the Belarusian 'elite' and security officials gleefully welcome the liberators from the "NATO threat".

In this case, we obtain the cumulative effect of the joint efforts of the two countries in the anti-Western and therefore anti-Ukrainian struggle, the military and political situation in Eastern Europe is escalating, the military threat to Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania is exacerbating significantly, the pressure on us is growing, a cold war is added to a hybrid one.

Belarusian opposition activists migrate to Ukraine, which does not add prospects in relations with the official Minsk.

The Russian government launches a new strategic game against Ukraine from the strengthened position.

2. Lukashenka and a significant part of the Belarusian 'elite' and security officials gleefully welcome the liberators from the "NATO threat", but a part of the population, maybe a substantial one, is opposed.

Depending on the strength of the "against", there can be a variety of patterns – from individual acts of protest and civil disobedience to attempts of carrying out a velvet revolution and sabotaging activities of the Russian group in the country.

In turn, the combined Russian and Belarusian security forces try to suppress anti-government and anti-Russian rising, which, in turn, gives rise to the following options:

– Peaceful protests are suppressed, Belarus for a long time immerse in the darkness of despotic oppression, security services act brutally in the fight against dissidence, repressions and housecleaning are carried out,

– Peaceful protests turn into military and guerrilla struggle against the occupiers and the regime.

In this case, there is a small probability of adjoining to the rebels of the Belarusian security services, a civil war, a possible split of the territory.

3. Lukashenka and a significant part of the Belarusian 'elite' and security officials gleefully welcome the liberators from the "NATO threat" and after the "exercises" clearly offer them to get out of Belarus.

Further, the Kremlin might try to eliminate the Belarusian leadership from power and establish a puppet government – with the same sliding into partisan-civil war, only with greater participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the fight against Moscow's occupation.

Or – which is highly unlikely, but still – the beginning of a full-fledged resistance of Belarus as an independent state, which is being deprived it of its independence – with the support of NATO, Poland, the Baltic States, Ukraine.

In such scenario, Eastern Europe and NATO creeps into conventional war with Russia, in which the latter, of course, is defeated, which results in Belarus and Ukraine’s release and the removal of threat to Europe and the alliance in the medium term.

In any scenario, a quiet life in Belarus is over.

The number of relevant publications in the Belarusian segment of the Internet shows that the people of Belarus and opinion leaders fully understand the current threat, and therefore start to start to get ready to kick it off, at least in the intellectual space so far.

There remains a rhetorical question to the Ukrainian leadership – does it understand the importance of the changes, awaiting Eastern Europe and the northern borders of Ukraine in the shortest political terms – three to six months ..?

Is it getting ready? "

We remind that the Belarusian National Congress, headed by Mikalai Statkevich, started to create regional military commissions to protect Belarus from the military threat from