Dziennik Gazeta Prawna: Conflict Between Moscow And Minsk To Become Multi-Faceted

Russia will put even more pressure on Belarus in 2017.

Author of the Polish periodical Dziennik Gazeta Prawna Michał Potocki writes about it.

According to him, the conflict between the two countries will have respect to gas and oil, integration, and border control.

"Russian-Belarusian energy disputes have become a lasting tradition. This time, the conflict relates to oil supplies. Belarus is complaining about the reduction of supply and demanding to increase the rates for the transit of raw materials to the West. Russia wants Minsk to repay for gas supplies," – he writes.

The Russian oil supplies are crucial for Belarus, as the export of petroleum products from refineries in Mozyr and Navapolatsk to the West is one of the most important sources of government revenue. According to the International Monetary Fund, Belarus appears to be the only country in Europe, which has a GDP drop. Without a significant increase in revenues, Belarus may face the problem of servicing the public debt.

Potocki continues that, in addition to energy disagreements, tension on the border is growing. Although Belarus and Russia are members of the Customs Union, the latter strengthened the border control, not allowing EU citizens.

"All of this, – the author stresses, – has led to Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s boycott of the double summit of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which took place in St Petersburg on December 26."

Russia expects Belarus to support its policy with regard to Ukraine, to make concessions in the economic sphere (for example, the sale of refineries and other enterprises), to give a consent to deploy a Russian military base on the territory.

The periodical quotes charter97.org article "Russia Has Decided To Remove Lukashenka From Power" and quotes the words of European Belarus civil campaign coordinator Zmitser Bandarenka that Lukashenka has not attended the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEC) due to his fear of a coup in Minsk:

"The dictator takes chaotic, inappropriate actions, and the probability of a state of emergency, in my opinion, is very high."