Expert: Nobody To Take Lukashenka's Orders Seriously

In a crisis, the power of the dictator has become the power of a puppet.

Lukashenka said in his New Year message that he had high hopes for 2017.

Analysts, interviewed by DW, look into the future with much less optimism.

"Most of the measures planned by the government for 2017, have already been promised a few years ago. Even if they are be put into practice, it's a bit too late," – Leanid Fridkin, the chief editor of Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, noted. He thinks, that Belarusians can't expect economical rise in the coming year.

Aliaksandr Autushka-Sikorsky, an expert of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), suggested that no one will take that oral Lukashenka's instruction seriously: "As far as I understand, this (an average salary equal to $500) is not included in any target indicators of policy documents. And this means, that one can ask nothing from the officials."

The expert emphasized, that to provide such salaries the government will have to enable the printing press, which will be followed by the rise of inflation rates and instability of ruble exchange rate, "and we have already got our fingers burnt by this."

Pumping up of Belarusian economy with money ends with another crisis and devaluation, hiding deep the accumulated structural problems, head of the project "Kosht Urada" Uladzimir Kovalkin reminds.

Structural reforms, which independent experts consider to be vital, are possible either under the influence of external factors (the claims of foreign creditors) or as a reaction to the collapse of the economy.

Pavel Daineka, the general director of the Minsk Institute of Privatization and Management, called the decision of Belarusian authorities to restructure state-owned companies the main issue of 2017. Daineko sees no other way out for the government. By the way, such restructuring is also one of the main conditions for receiving of the IMF loan by Belarus.

The interviewed experts doubt that the authorities in Minsk will dare to announce mass bankruptcy of insolvent companies. "Rather, they will buy time and try to find the ways to improve the situation by the usual administrative measures," – Fridkin believes.

Belarus has entered the new year having an unresolved disputes with Russia regarding the supply of hydrocarbons. In this regard, Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Uladzimir Siamashka stated to BelTA news agency on December 29, that "we stay optimistic." According to Siamashka, Belarusian government hopes to " reach a compromise on oil and gas issue not later than the first quarter of 2017."

Aliaksandr Autushka-Sikorsky does not share optimism of the Deputy Prime Minister. According to the BISS expert, 2016 was the last year when Belarus could purchase oil and gas in the Russian Federation at more or less favorable conditions. "Profitability of Russian supplies will continue to fall and it will be more and more difficult to make a deal with Russia," – the expert forecasts.