Economist: "Oil Money" Play Tragic Role For Belarusian Industry

High-tech product make meager 3% in Belarusian exports.

The Belarusian government has developed a plan to "increase exports" to the European Union during the next three years. According to this plan, sales of our goods to the EU countries should grow by $ 300-350 million annually and should reach $ 6.244 billion in 2020, Belsat reports. The economist Leanid Zaika commented on the "optimism" of the Belarusian authorities.

Oil and gas needle

The Council of Ministers named Belneftekhim to be the main driver of growth, which should bring half of the exported profit. Last year, due to the oil and gas dispute between Minsk and Moscow, and also because of the fall in oil price, Belarus exported 40% less oil products than in the year before last.

In 2018, Belneftekhim should make $ 2.82 billion, in 2019 the amount should be almost $ 3 billion, and in 2020, $ 150 million more.

"Up to 40% of Belarusian exports were oil products, which played a tragic role for the Belarusian industry and psychology. This money come easy and go easy. As for the program for increasing the export of petroleum products to the European Union, this is the worst thing that can be done," – Leanid Zaika is sure.

The Ministry of Industry will become the second "locomotive" of exports

Which should sell 15% more products to the EU every year. It sounds nice, but according to the data from the IPM Research Center, the share of high-tech products in Belarusian exports is a meager 3%, while the share of medium-technology products is declining year by year. Last year, it was only a third of the exports of industrial goods.

"We should think with the EU not about the trade, but about entering a new technological level. About such things as IT, 3D printing, electric transport, robots. It’s better to improve technical state of our enterprises, and if we produce good equipment, everyone will buy it. We do not need plans on export increase, we do not need any plans," – Leanid is convinced.

The Council of Ministers has other plans

In the near future, the government will determine the officials responsible for meeting the targets. It will be worth remembering their names, and to check in a few years, whether these "bright plans" have come true.