Yauhen Afnahel: The Authorities Walking on a Mine Field

If a salary is not issued somewhere, it will accelerate disaffection.

What changes have happened to the Belarusians over past year in Belarus? What is the greatest concern? Have sentiments of bureaucrats and the police changed? What is waiting on the country in the near future? Coordinator of European Belarus, one of the leaders of the Belarusian National Congress (BNC) Jauhen Afnahel told in the interview to Charter97.org.

- Jauhen, you returned to Belarus in early 2016 after five years of emigration. Today you are one of the young leaders of the Belarusian opposition. Can you compare Belarus one and a half years ago and today?

- When I just arrived in Belarus after several years of forced emigration, there was still a fear of protests and power in the society. It is obvious that it was pressed by the dispersal of the Square on December 19, 2010 and subsequent repressions. And some kind of consternation and apathy became the first thing my eye caught after homecoming.

But literally within the first year everything drastically changed: apathy and unbelief in their strength vanished into thin air.

In early 2017 I had an impression that I was living in another Belarus. In the spring we saw quite different Belarusians: they were not afraid of anything, took the streets, put forward their demands - and eventually achieved certain victories. For example, the suspension of Decree No. 3.

And this, perhaps, was the strongest impression: not the things I saw after 5 years of emigration, but the changes occurred to people in just one year of my stay in the homeland.

- Has the socio-economic situation in the country changed over the past year and a half?

- Having returned in early 2016, I immediately drew attention to the fact that the Belarusians had become poor compared to five years before it. The smallest details proved that people had much less money and that money was enough only for the essentials.

The second thing I drew attention to was a sharp situation deterioration in the regions. Apparently, remembering that mass protests are traditionally held in Minsk, the authorities mustered the last economic forces to the capital. And a huge gap in welfare with the regions occurred. There was no facade of well-being in the regions. For the first time I had to see how many people could not get a job.

And for the last year and a half this situation has not changed for the better. In many directions it has become even worse. Now speaking to people ready to go to a protest, I mentioned an important thing: people are opposed not so much because of the Decree on "spongers" itself, but generally because of a complex of problems. Absence of work, money, prospects. For the first time, probably, after "Perestroika" the Belarusians have found themselves in the situation when they have nothing to lose. And this is a very formidable and decisive force.

- What can add fuel to the fire? Will a five-fold increase in payments for winter heating the catalyst for protests?

- Anything can become a decisive factor for protests. After all, in the spring people took the streets not only because of Decree No. 3. Anything can become a ground for protests in the fall. This may be an increase in prices of rent bills, and even the price increase for the essentials even in a small town. Or, for instance, some enterprise - not even the largest one - is not able to pay wages at all.

Everything can become a decisive factor. The authorities are walking on a minefield.

- Has anything changed in the police sentiments?

- Every policeman has friends, family, relatives. Earlier - we noticed it on actions - a police officer had a clear barrier. On the one hand, he is quite a significant part of the society in his understanding, and on the other side, some opposition members come out with slogans and demands that, let's say, unclear to him.

And on spring actions many police officers had an understanding that people who took squares were protecting interests of their friends, family, and relatives. Put simply, their own interests.

First actions of the spring-2017 became the break with stereotypes for many security officials. When 2 thousand people take the square in the same Orsha (which is 2% of the city's population), when thousands of people take the streets of Babruisk, Baranavichy with no rallies since Perestroika, this is a strong sign for police officers.

Let it be not immediately, albeit gradually, but they come up with the understanding that the opposition defends interests of the whole people, that it is the people. We actually indirectly defend interests of security officials and their relatives, because they also suffer problems with salaries, job cuts, prices in stores. And everyone can find himself a "sponger".

I'd like to say that over the past year and a half the image of the opposition has changed for a large number of people. If earlier they considered the opposition was separated from the people and promoted not very clear objectives, now we have become defenders of ordinary people. I have often seen and heard lately the way ordinary people thanked our activists for support, came to courts, came to our protest actions for the first time.

- People with clear moral positions have always neared changes. What does give you strength to remain such a person?

- Reasonable, unemotional sense of rightness gave me strength. Knowing the history of the country, understanding processes in the economy gave the sense that we were on the right track.

And now even ordinary people give strength. I feel that now this support is many times greater than it was a year ago. People see that the authorities do not know how to run the country any longer, and are not going to fix their mistakes. Therefore, people trust us, turn to us. And this is a great motivation.

Second, it turned out that the opposition had been right. And this sense of self-rightness also gives strength.