Lukashenka’s Economy "Withered"

There is "September mood" in the Belarusian economy.

The consolidated economic sentiment index in Belarus decreased by 1.7 times last month. Such data are given in the review of the economic conjuncture, published by the National Bank. At the same time, in the main sectors of the economy, the sentiments differ markedly both among themselves and in comparison with the previous month, Economic Newspaper writes.

In September, the consolidated index was 2.6%, and seasonally rectified – minus 0.3% against 4.5 and -2.5% in August, respectively. Among the main industries, autumn sentiments were most clearly manifested at industrial enterprises. Their index declined from August 8.8 to 7.3% in September, and factoring in seasonality increased from 2.7 to 4%.

In particular, the assessment of changes in the physical volume of orders in the domestic market shifted from -5 to -1.1% last month, in the foreign market – from-1.2 to 0.8%, changes in the volume of stock – from -10.6 to -11.3%, while expectations of changes in production volumes decreased from 19.5 to 11.1%.

The index of economic sentiment of trade organizations was 7.7% in September, and taking into account the seasonal factor – 3.3% (a month earlier – 9.5 and 0.9%). At the same time, the valuation of changes in the volume of goods not sold for more than 3 months shifted from -14.5 to -12.1%, of changes in the physical volume of trade – from -1.2 to 3.2%, and the expectation of changes in sales volumes – from 15.7 to 8%.

In construction, the index of economic sentiment declined from -16.9 in August to -17.9% in September, and, taking into account the seasonal factor – rose from -21.4 to -20.6%. At the same time, the assessment of changes in the volume of contracts in the domestic market shifted from -16.4 to -19.9% (a year earlier, -30.6%), in the foreign market – from -18.3 to -13.1% (-22 , 9% a year earlier), while the expectation of changes in the number of employed – from -16.7 to -18.7% (-33.9% in September 2016).

On transport, the index of economic sentiment declined from 1.7 in August to -3%, and seasonally rectified – from -7.6 to 2.9%. At the same time, the assessment of changes in the volume of contracts for transportation in the domestic market shifted from -0.9 to -3.4% (a year earlier, -16%), in the foreign market – from -3.2 to -1.6% (-14, 7% a year earlier), changes in demand for enterprise services – from 5.6 to 5.5% (-17.6% in September 2016), and the expectation of this change – from 1.5 to -11.6 (- 21.2% a year earlier).