The Utility and Housing "Reform" to Be Held at the Expense of Citizens?

This is the only way the authorities can live.

"The other day, the fifth October Economic Forum was over. As usual, economic reforms were on the agenda, but there were little hope and enthusiasm in comparison with previous forums. There are no real reforms, but not because they are not relevant," Nashe Mnenie writes.

The economic growth is so miserable that it is barely observable: the economy of Belarus is "recovering" following the Russian economy, but it is less visible. It was like it in previous years, when the economic success of our main trading partner provided conditions for the development of our country. But if in the period of rapid growth in the 2000s Russia managed to accumulate large foreign exchange reserves, Belarus accumulated substantial debts.

In principle, the situation does not change today: the growth of gold and foreign exchange reserves is accompanied by an increase in external debt. Actually, these reserves do not exceed liabilities expected within twelve months. About $6 billion should be paid by the state administration, and almost $1.2 billion is to be paid out under loans received by enterprises under government guarantees. The surplus of foreign trade of several hundred million is not able to cover all payments, which means that new obligations will be require fulfillment of obligations which increase the debt burden for the following years.

It's also bad that a small surplus of trade that we have is the consequence of the violation of our obligations under treaties concluded with Russia. We suddenly became lucky to become a country exporting tropical fruits, we suddenly learned how to grow Atlantic trout and salmon. These circumstances, along with the fact that we supply millions of tons of oil products to the EU by-passing existing Belarusian-Russian agreements, have become additional irritants in relations with Russia.

There is no doubt that the government is well aware of real prospects of economic collisions with Moscow, and yet the necessary structural reforms are not carried out. Moreover, at the last October Economic Forum the position of the First Deputy Prime Minister Vasil Matsyusheuski was voiced and it justified the current state of affairs: "The travesty of reforms is worse than their non-conduct." The First Deputy Prime Minister believes that "reforms must be seized and accepted by those who perform them and by those whose lives they change."

After so many years of discussions of reforms, these words sound strange. After all, they are a direct statement that the authorities of Belarus are not only unprepared for reforms, but in fact they did not tried to be prepared for them.

Contrary to recommendations of the World Bank or the IMF implying their discussion with all interested parties during preparation works, everything happened in Belarus and happens behind the scenes: the society whose interests are directly affected has been left out of the brackets. An exception is the information on the share of state-covered housing services and a hint of the need to increase their cost to the public. And surprisingly, nothing is said about assumed opportunity to reduce the cost of energy resources for enterprises, which entails a reduction in the cost of production, increase in production output and increase in wages, and, as a result, everyone will be the gainer. Nothing is said about targeted assistance to those who need it at a time unless the welfare growth of citizens of the republic does not exceed the increase in utility tariff rates. You do not need to be a prophet to foresee the reaction of people to such ideas, when one is lead into a dark tunnel without promising any light in the end of it (regardless of the country). The topic of the necessary privatization of state-owned enterprises was not mentioned at all in state-owned media.

A simple explanation of why it happened like that is on the surface, but it is complex.

To begin with, one can see that the whole country - without straining - is a large state corporation. Everything is somehow under control of the vertical created by one person around and for himself. The expert community advocating for reforms is also a part of the system which means that they are simply officials who observing the problem turn to the head.

"Belarus needs transformations, and if we decide to really move towards this goal, then it is necessary to change approaches to the promotion of reforms. If there is no consensus on this matter with the authorities, it would be logical at least to try to find it with the society," the edition concludes.