The current currency market situation is alarming.
How will the foreign currency deficit affect the dollar, euro and ruble exchange rate?
TeleTrade financial consultant Zhanna Kulakova shared her expert opinion with myfin.by.
– Last week, the National Bank statistics on currency transactions in our domestic market forced me to reconsider my further forecasts regarding the Belarusian ruble.
It turned out that in November, taking into account the transactions of enterprises, non-residents and the population, we had a deficit of foreign currency, that is, there was a net demand of $ 135 million. It happened for the first time since December 2016. Natural persons clearly slowed down on selling currency, and in fact they had been the pillar of monetary stability.
And although this situation developed for the first time in the year, in October and August the market was literally a step away from a deficit. That is, as far as I can see, this deficit has been brewing and is not accidental.
What could have affected the natural persons? It could be the decrease in interest rates, it is possible that some people are running out of savings, perhaps – the devaluation expectations are growing. This is a wake-up call. If our market lose its support from individuals, and enterprises continue to buy up currency actively, the Belarusian ruble is likely to have problems.
Earlier, the rate of the Belarusian ruble weakening used to be 3-5% per year. But if the deficit persists, then this level can raise to 15% per year. The statistics for January and February next year will be very important.
Over the past week, the Belarusian ruble has fallen in price – it will continue to weaken further. The dollar went up by 1.2%, the euro rose symbolically by 0.4%, and the Russian ruble remained practically unchanged – there was a slight fluctuation, less than 0.1%.
On Wednesday there will be a meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where, perhaps, they will say something specific about the key interest rate and this will affect the dollar's rate. But the euro’s prospects look brighter at the moment.