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Roman Bezsmertnyi: Belarusians Are Tried-And-Tested Guerrillas

Roman Bezsmertnyi: Belarusians Are Tried-And-Tested Guerrillas
ROMAN BEZSMERTNYI

Those, who try to take over Belarus, will take ill.

Former ambassador of Ukraine in Belarus, former member of the contact group on the talks in Minsk Bezsmertnyi told "Komsomolskaya Pravda in Ukraine" about what is happening in the Belarusian-Russian relations.

– Why has Minsk decided to ban entry to Ukrainian Zhadan?

– It is related to the fact that Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia have a common customs border. Each of these countries has its own list of personae non gratae, who are not allowed to enter. But this list is to be observed by all the countries of the common customs space.

In peacetime, there were about 300 Ukrainians on the Russian list, now it has been extended. That is, the ban on Zhadan’s entry was not Lukashenka or the Belarusian authorities’ initiative, but the general requirement of the common customs space. And that ban was lifted as an exception.

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– It's all happening at the background of another complication of relations between Minsk and Moscow. What happened?

– There are several reasons. Moscow has so far refused to provide Minsk with 3-billion support from the Eurasia Foundation, which severely hits the republic‘s budget. In addition, Russia is demanding from Lukashenka to pay a higher price for its oil and gas. The debates on monitoring the Russian military bases on the territory of Western Belarus by the Belarusian authorities have escalated as well. That is, it is simply Lukashenka’s attempt to receive financial and economic preferences. Even so, we should not rush to draw conclusions about the final rupture between Lukashenka and Moscow.

– However, Russian politicians and deputies have been recently talking that Russia can and should annex Belarus. Some Western experts say the same things. Is this scenario likely to happen?

– Such progression of events cannot be excluded right now. Belarus, like Ukraine, is mentally divided into two parts – the East and the West. Two western regions – Hrodna and Brest ones, and a part of Minsk region are clearly oriented to the West. The four eastern regions – Homel, Vitsebsk, Mahiliou ones and a part of Minsk region are oriented to the East. And pro-Russian sentiments are very strong there, such leaflets as "Vitsebsk Is A Russian City" periodically appear there. Pro-Russian organizations act aggressively in Belarusian social networks. Belarus has already got its Crimea and Donbas.

The mechanism of preparation for the accession of Belarus to Russia has been running for a long time. On the other hand, this very mechanism keeps Lukashenka in dependence to Moscow. Especially since the majority of Belarusian enterprises and assets have long been in the property of Russians.

– If they try to annex Belarus , will the Belarusians somehow oppose it and defend themselves?

– You have to understand that the Belarusians are very disciplined and law-abiding people. But you shouldn’t forget that Belarusians are tried-and-tested guerrillas at the same time. It's enough to remember the Second World War. Therefore, those who try to take over the country, will take ill, it admits of no doubt. The guerrilla allowance is very high there. These people march to their own drummer, and they have very strong statist sentiments. That is, the Belarusians will fight, and such blitzkrieg, as, for example, in the Crimea, will not work out there.

And Lukashenka, on the one hand, is playing nice with Moscow, and on the other – is also trying to stick somehow to the statist position. In recent years, the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff of the country have had a major staff turnover. Ethnic Russians were removed from the middle and top echelons, while their positions were occupied by Belarusians and even Ukrainians. I was told about this by Belarusian politicians and officials in private conversations.

– What is the state of the Belarusian army now?

– There's an Army intended for fun, for parades, but there are a number of combat-ready units that can fight back. In addition, a new military doctrine was approved in Belarus last year, under which there is such a thing as the troops of territorial defense. Put simply, they are partisan detachments in case of war. And since nobody is going to attack Belarus from the West, they can be used only to repel aggression from the East. And if you drive from Homel to Minsk, you'll see defensive redoubts, which face the East.

– It is believed that Belarus is almost the last stronghold of the Soviet mentality of the former Soviet Union. Is it true?

– In part, it is subject to the main mass of the Belarusians. But cultural, scientific and political elites (not Lukashenka’s one) have long had different views. For example, you can find a statement in many historical works of the Belarusian scientists that "Belarusians are Lithuanians, who have become Slavicized", within the meaning of the heir to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.

Indeed, the Belarusians are very disciplined and law-abiding people, and that resembles the Balts. And there people no longer believe in the myth of the "three fraternal peoples." Themes of the Lithuanian-Russian wars are very popular, for example, in the historic community.

– And do Belarusians, as well as Ukrainians, go to work to the West, to Poland?

– Not only to work, but also to study. The dream of every Belarusian official is to send his children to study in Western Europe, or at least in Lithuania. Every weekend a queue of cars lines up from Belarus to Vilnius for many kilometers. A direct electric train goes to Polish Bialystok. So the Belarusian establishment is mainly oriented to the West, and the Belarusians themselves are more Europeans by their mentality, compared to the Ukrainians.

– And what is the attitude of the Belarusians to the Ukrainians?

– The same media broadcast on the territory of Belarus and Russia. So, for the most part, the Belarusians of the eastern regions have the same attitude to the Ukrainians, as Russians. But if you sit at the table with them, having a shot glass of vodka and a piece of bacon, they begin to think about what is happening in Ukraine.

– What is the likelihood of the Russian military attack on Ukraine from Belarus?

– It is up to Putin, but not to Lukashenka. The Russian president does not consult with his Belarusian counterpart on these matters. And we need to think about it very seriously, as we haven’t secured this direction at all.

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