Leanid Zlotnikau: GDP of Belarus to Fall Noteworthily

In 2017 the economy of Belarus expects unpleasant surprises.

In January GDP decreased by 0.5%. But the government has planned growth of 1.7% this year.

Iasub: The thing is who will be a consumer of growing industry

According to the Committee on National Statistics, in January the industrial production output rose allegedly by 5.9%.

However, senior analyst of Alpari Vadzim Iasub does not share the government's optimism about these figures.

-Indeed, there is a small industry growth after a great drop. Is this the way out of the crisis? The thing is who will be a consumer of "reviving" industry. If earlier the finished production was taken to a warehouse, later they were taken to warehouses of trade houses in Russia and other countries. It sounds like exports, but in reality it is not, Vadzim Iasub says in comments to Zautra Tvaye Krainy.

He cites an example with the supply of farm machinery on farms. Farms often have no opportunity to pay for it and their debts are covered by the state at the expense of the budget.

Senior analyst of Alpari is skeptic about the industrial production index. In his view, the Belarusian economy will not be able to reach the planned GDP growth until the end of the year, there are preconditions.

In his opinion, domestic investments are unlikely to grow without a printing press, a serious inflow of external investments is barely possible, success in foreign trade is questionable, no new paying markets for the Belarusian industry are observed.

Finally, one needs to consider a sharp reduction in oil deliveries from Russia and transit of oil and gas war into a meat-dairy one.

It will be a great achievement, if the economic growth equals to 0% in the end of the year. This is probably the maximum that we can get in this situation. The decline by 0.5-1% is more real, Vadzim Iasub says.

Zlotnikau: GDP to Fall Noteworthily

Economist Leanid Zlotnikau also sees no growth factors for the Belarusian economy and believes the further reduction of the country's GDP is the most likely scenario.

- It will happen if processes will be inertial. If Russia digs its heels in and Lukashenka fails to persuade it to provide us with more cheap oil and gas, consequences will be even more severe. Expenses will increase and the cost of production, GDP will fall noteworthily. It is barely possible that this year any events will have a positive impact on the economy. Unpleasant surprises are rather possible, Leanid Zlotnikau believes.