Disgruntled Belarusians And Revolution

Lukashenka is following in the footsteps of Nikolai Romanov 100 years ago.

The Belarusians have been made afraid of "bloody Maidan" for three years. One would think it's been quite successful. Although there’s a severe economic crisis in the country, which has continued for many months, it is not accompanied by any social protests or conflicts (except for the sole traders’ demonstrations a year ago).

But Lukashenka's decree №3 has really stirred up the society. The inadequacy of power has really put people out of temper.

Several thousand people took part in the Outraged Belarusians March which was held in the center of Minsk on February 17. That was the largest mass protest in Belarus since December 19, 2010. Similar actions were held in the regional cities of Belarus on February 19. In Homel, the march encountered several thousand people, even though the actions weren't much advertised. The protesters demanded to abolish the decree on "social parasitism".

World history is full of examples of how unintelligent power, being in the moment of another twist, creates a pre-revolutionary situation with its own hands. In this case just evaluate the scale of the problem.

The Ministry of Taxes and Levies has sent about 470 thousand notifications, nicknamed "chain letters" by the people, demanding to pay a levy of about $ 180. Interests of half a million people are hurt. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have to go to executive committees and tax agencies, standing there in queues for hours trying to prove that dogs don't climb trees.

All this happens in the times of the deepening economic crisis. According to official statistics, the number of laid-off has exceeded the number of employed by 108 thousand people in 2016. This means that about 9 thousand people lose their jobs every month in Belarus. This does not include those who work 2-3 times a week and is constantly forced to go on vocations. It has recently been announced about a large-scale "optimization" in the government and budget organizations. Cuts await even the Police. That's why working people are also dissatisfied with the campaign against parasitism, as they are perfectly aware that may appear in the status of "parasites" at any moment.

The main culprit of these dramatic processes – the power since the state is the main employer in Belarus. One may think that the state should help its citizens in this difficult moment. The more that our government solemnly declares itself to be social.

But everything happens the other way around. Not only that Belarusian government pays meager unemployment benefits (about $ 15), but also the power has started to punish people left without work and in trouble with a fine. This is the essence of the tax on "social parasitism". This abuse of common sense has affected primarily the lowest social classes.

It is only natural that the actions of the authorities have made the society feel unbearable injustice. There was not simply the discredit of the government. It is losing its status of moral authority, the process of delegitimization of the regime has been launched. Simultaneously the society becomes more politically active, which the authorities have tried to avoid even during election campaigns.

This could happen only in a country where the authorities don't get feedback from the society, where the government does not hear the people, does not feel their moods.

Two decades of authoritarian regime and the unlimited power did their work of destruction. As a real inhabitant of heaven ("slightly above God"), Lukashenka has got out of touch with reality, he has lost the ability to adjust his actions to the reality. Lukashenka's press conference on February 3 shows how little he feels the people, how little he realizes what's going on. When asked about the issue of "parasites", he said: "We have studied thoroughly what part of the population is troubled by this document. As I expected, it's a small part, a few thousand people."

In fact, more than 80 thousand people have signed for the abolition of the scandalous decree this month. A lot more people speak for the abolition of the decree in social networks. Although only several thousand people participated in the March on February 17, 1 million Internet users watched video from the action within one day. Well, then a phenomenon of a personalistic regime came into effect. If a leader makes a mistake, it cannot be corrected. The system of checks and balances is missing. There is no mechanism of rejection of erroneous decisions. And none of the environment dares to say: "Aliaksandr Ryhoravich, you are wrong."

As a result, we have a very curious situation. People are against this decree. Officials are against it as well. As the entire state apparatus has been mobilized for the implementation of this document recently. Several departments were looking for "parasites". Departments of the Ministry of Taxes and Levies are actually paralyzed, everyone is busy implementing the decree. Local executive committees desperately create commissions which are to exempt those who have got into "difficult situalion" from payment of the tax. Post offices operate at maximum capacity, distributing the "chain letters." Moreover, an unprecedented thing – even the leadership of Lukashenka's administration has dispersed throughout the country to explain to the people what a "wise decree" the ruler adopted. I.e, the entire state apparatus has quitted everything and left for the front of struggle against "parasites". Only one person advocates for the decree. But he holds absolute power and no one can do anything.

One has to contrive artfully to create so many problems all in one go: to cause widespread discontent of the people, to put the state apparatus into a tizz, and even to revive the opposition, giving into its hands the desired combustible material.

The most reasonable way out of this impasse would be the abolition of this unfortunate decree. But there’s a problem here, which is not only a political, but a psychological one. The issue is not that Lukashenka has flown into pridefulness. The abolition of the resonant decree would become a recognition of his own mistake. There is no longer the possibility to blame the officials for everything, saying that they, as usual, have "gummed up the works". For everyone remembers, who was the initiator and the chief public defender of this idea. And the leader, as is well-known, doesn’t make mistakes. Besides, the abolition of the decree under the protest pressure, organized by the opposition, would be a recognition of the political defeat and the victory of the opponents.

A revolution started in Russia 100 years ago. The power’s self-vilification due to the Rasputin-euphoria became one of the reasons for that. But, as far as is known, the history teaches no one.

Valery Karbalevich, Free News Plus