Andrei Sannikov: I am ready to participate in the fair presidential elections

In Belarus, today it is possible to change the situation peacefully.

How does the situation in Belarus currently look like? How are relations with the West built? Why so much is spoken about the aggravation of relations between Minsk and Moscow?

This was discussed on the Russian-speaking Estonian channel ETV+ in the program „Na Ostrie” with the leader of the civil campaign „European Belarus” and former presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov.

- Hello! Let's start with your quote. You said that the war currently is a real threat to Belarus. What kind of war? And what is that thousand of Russian tanks for? What is it all about?

- Good evening! Glad to be here. Thank you for inviting me.

This concerns military exercises planned for this autumn. And this is what Lukashenka talk about - that a thousand of Russian tanks, which will come to Belarus, does not threaten the independence of the country. I will say more: it is a threat not only to our independence, but also to your independence, i.e. Baltic countries. Thousands of Russian tanks, at a time when Russia is waging war in other countries (I underline - other countries) - is a very serious problem for our neighbors to think about.

- Lukashenka says that a national problem, as such, does not exist in Belarus. Is it so?

- What do you mean by a national problem?

- In Ukraine, for example, there are some tensions between the Ukrainians and the Russians. Does Belarus have such a problem, which could be used for political games and manipulations?

- Such a problem is created now by the Russians. Some pro-Russian quite aggressive people, small groups, paramilitary formations are emerging here. This problem is now appearing. And no, we had not such a problem before. Belarus is known for its tolerance, though Lukashenka did all he could so that not only such a problem but also Belarusian nation ceased to exist. He fell into the trap he had been setting himself during all the years of his rule, by aggressively denying the Belarusian culture, language, history and declaring himself an internationalist and a Russian man, who understands the Russian people better than anyone and so on.

- Lukashenka also says that if a national question is raised – one should expect trouble!

- You know, a normal state could be formed only if it goes through the stage of formation of the nation-state. The stage that we have not had, because Belarus was restrained in the beginning. I mean, in 1918, when the Belarusian People's Republic was proclaimed. It was actually strangled. And we all, as well as the Estonians, know very well how the manifestations of all national, not even nationalistic, national culture were combated, how everyone was thrown into some reservations, the only places where national culture could exist. In Belarus, the biggest pressure was put on our national factor.

And today, I absolutely do not understand why they say that as soon as some national issue appears – we should expect a trouble. No! Today, national questions are needed so much, in a constructive and positive way, so that they are only welcomed.

- Do you feel yourself as a Belarusian, despite the fact that your name is Russian?

- Of course as a Belarusian. There are many different versions. There is, for example, a village near Warsaw called Sanniki. I did not investigate the origin, but there could be different versions.

- I have a Ukrainian name, but that doesn’t make me a Ukrainian. But you still have a Russian language as a State language, in contrast to Ukraine.

- It is the second State language.

- Nevertheless, it is used as an official language. Documentation is made in Russian too.

- I would not say so. I would say that the Belarusian State language is sabotaged. Because according to law, the state institutions should primarily maintain records and interactions in the state languages. It has been difficult. In recent years a little more attention is paid to it. That's because people began to demand the full return of the Belarusian language in Belarus.

- Isn’t the formation of a nation-state too late? Or, on the contrary, it is in the spirit of the today’s times?

- Europe went through this. I do not know if there are any other ways. There are other forms. I'm talking about the formation of a nation-state through which a state, that wants to exist as a state, must pass. The state must recognize its place in the world through this process. Perhaps, forms today are modern, they are not that dangerous to people as they were before, when they were associated with wars and serious conflicts, to which also religious issues were added. But we have to go through it and we are passing through it. But this process is delayed.

- How many years can the formation of a nation-state in Belarus take?

- Under the conditions of a democratic state, this process will run very quickly.

- Isn’t Belarus a democratic state now?

- No, it's a dictatorship.

- For several times, you called Lukashenka a dictator. But we have a myth here that Belarus is a prosperous state, which has preserved positive features of the Soviet Union, existence of social security, free health care and much more. What can you say about this?

- You rightly said that it is a myth. Gaining an insight into this will take a very long time. You know what happened? The worst combination of two components: archaic unreformed system together with imposed kleptocratic structure. That means that the authorities in Belarus took the power in order to allow their entourage to steal. That is why the scale of theft is impressive, and under the conditions of an unreformed economy this theft is placing an immense burden on the people. Hence those silly laws appear. When people talk about the myths, we should ask: do you have ‘social parasite’ laws and fines for being unemployed? When even a mother on maternity must pay this tax for the fact that she gave birth and looks after child.

- But from somewhere those money should to be taken?

- Exactly, this is an absolute indicator of what this system led to.

- And how much do mothers on maternity leave today have to pay to the state?

- I do not know exactly, but „social parasites” pay something around 200 USD.

- Returning to the military threat from which we started. Do you think that, at some time in the future, Belarus may cease to exist?

- It may cease to exist very soon. Since the present regime brought to this situation when the economic dependence on Russia prevails. The government did not do anything after gaining independence, at least in order to diversify sources of energy, so that Belarus could receive energy not only from Russia.

- Such a goal, perhaps, was not even set.

- This goal was not set, because all dictators feel that they are eternal. I believe that both Putin and Lukashenka think so. And also they think that such a situation when promises can be exchanged for cheap energy or subsidies will last forever too. But the world is changing, and very rapidly. Especially today. Therefore, if we talk about the possibilities, Lukashenka has created an extremely dangerous situation, which makes him so undecided right now.

- This situation is „between the two fires”. We have seen this with respect to Ukraine.

- There is no second „fire” from Europe. Europe today is behaving foolishly enough, trying to make Lukashenka an opponent of Putin. It will not happen, as hatred and misunderstanding of the West is stronger than the fear of Russia.

- Hatred of Lukashenka towards the West?

- Yes. Even if there are some negotiations, they will negotiate as criminals. They will agree among themselves. They will never accept the conditions of obscure people that are demanding to follow the laws.

- Is Lukashenka organically not able to comply with the laws, even in exchange for some financial benefits?

- No, it is absolutely impossible. The entire system, so to speak, - is a system of „double deception”. Firstly, the laws are silly, which puts constraint on everything. Not only on human rights and freedoms, but also on economic life. The country is now in the worst situation. Why do I say „double deception”? Because even these laws are not enforced.

- If we talk about the military situation of Belarus: are there any Russian troops in Belarus?

- I do not know. I cannot say with certainty whether there are military experts and officers in Belarus. It is a closed society, we do not have free media that could cover the situation, as no government agency communicates with the independent media. I cannot tell you exactly if there are soldiers or not. As the maneuvers are planned for the autumn, I suppose that some military advanced groups can be in Belarus.

- Can we assume that this movement of such groups in Belarus was caused by the approach of NATO troops to the eastern borders of NATO?

- Absolutely not! Because NATO’s deployment of symbolic divisions in the Baltic States and Poland was justified and caused by the war in Europe waged by Russia. And, unlike our eastern neighbor, I have no concerns about NATO, because everything is transparent there, it was explained why that was necessary. It was the demand of the states themselves, of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland. And there is no need to turn everything upside down. What does the advancement of NATO have to do with it?

- In fact, we are the NATO, this is what it is necessary to begin with.

- Yes, the tension in the region increases. It is no longer just an aggressive policy of the Kremlin that threatens to start war, but the war is already under way, and, in order to prevent it from being in your homeland, you need to take actions.

- What kind of actions?

- First of all, NATO should strengthen its defense. Those countries, which may be a risk zones, zones of next Kremlin's moves and aggressive military steps. I would say that it is necessary to take measures to help Belarus to become a truly democratic state that guarantees safety. My opinion is that NATO military protection will not be able to reduce the threat from Belarus as long as there is a dictatorial regime.

- How could Lukashenka, in your opinion, peacefully transfer the power to the opposition?

- Through free elections. Lukashenka is in the difficult situation now. I can confirm that it is the hardest since the time of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence in 1991. He is forced to look for ways out, including within Belarus itself, which he never did before. Around us, we have a lot of examples of the transformation. It was a different situation, there was perestroika in the Soviet Union, the Communist Party collapsed, the Kremlin today is completely different, but nevertheless, the current dynamic is somewhat similar to the one that was in those states. We know how the transformation took place in the Baltic States and Poland.

- Here we have a little different situation, peoples are not so much related and cultural ties are not so close. Belarus is linked with Russia much more closely than Estonia with Russia.

- Are you telling that the situation in Estonia is different, that peoples here are not so related, forgetting how many Russians live and lived here at that time? I think the situation was probably even more difficult.

- The national question was a little bit different, as it seems to me.

- Actually, it was a question of the survival of Estonia. Estonia had to quickly go through the stage of formation of the nation-state again. It managed to do it, moreover, without any serious conflicts. I'm not referring to the disputes around the „bronze soldier” that were inspired and fueled.

- Let us set aside a “Bronze soldier”, I understand, that everything may look quite simple. From my point of view - this is not the truth.

- I am not talking about the essence of this. I'm talking about what was going on around those events. So, there are no kindred peoples there. Belarus has much more serious traditions, European traditions, that were broken off.

- Lithuania - Poland, these traditions you have in mind?

- I mean traditions at several levels and in several areas: legal, cultural, trade, economic. In general, we can quickly build up our current experience on the basis of those traditions.

- But you will not be allowed to do it.

- Who will not allow?

- You have a very powerful neighbor.

- Why every time I talk with European politicians, I hear that Russia will not allow us to do it?

- Because they think rationally and they imagine what can happen in case you really try to become fully independent.

- It is not rational thinking, but weakness. Because, seriously, Belarus is the most important country for Europe today. By just looking at the map - it becomes obvious when you take into account the fact that Russia is preparing military exercise in Belarus. And we do not know the real purpose. But we know that in 2009, in Belarus, there have been the biggest exercise since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the target was a nuclear attack on Warsaw, Baltic countries cut off and a tank breakthrough to Kaliningrad.

- Why does Russia need it, given that these actions might lead to a full-scale war?

- I always find it difficult to respond logically to this question and explain such illogical behavior. If we talk about the interests of Russia as a state, as a nation - there are no reasons for invasion and occupation of Ukraine and annexation of the Crimea. The question „why?”, to my mind, is not quite appropriate here. And the question is - Europe has to understand the significance of Belarus, and that today, it is really possible to change the situation in Belarus in a peaceful way. The opposition today stands for a dialogue.

- For a dialogue with whom?

- With the regime. Because the situation has changed dramatically. Because there is a serious threat to our real independence. For the sake of this we can decrease a little our claims, which are very serious. After all, we have a lot of claims for so many years of the dictatorship. And we can enter into negotiations in order to bring the country out of the crisis. And it can begin only with the free elections under international supervision.

- Why is exactly Belarus important as a military base? In fact, after the war in Ukraine, a lot of potential hotspots were noted. Northern Kazakhstan, Ukraine. Why Belarus?

- As far as Ukraine is concerned, the war is already going on there. We are talking about Europe. I would advise once again to look at the map.

- So you still think that the Baltic countries could be cut off from the other western countries?

- Of course. And it is not only me who thinks so. I think NATO is now working on this scenario.

- I think that all scenarios are worked out everywhere. Potential conflicts are possible on all borders.

- But today, in connection with these exercise, I would like NATO and Europe to demand cancelation of them. They threaten us, we do not need them. Because it will obviously increase the tension. Clearly, NATO will take some countermeasures. Recently in Warsaw, Poland, a war game was held with a scenario of invasion of the Baltic states through the occupation of Belarus. Experts and military strategists consider this as a real threat. I would like this threat to be realized also here. Moreover, I would like you to realize that through the support of Belarusian democracy movement it is possible to ensure all your interests by non-military means.

- On the other hand, if we ignore the military component, Russia is now creating a so-called border zone at the borders with Belarus. What is this for? It doesn’t mean that the two countries are going to merge or invade one another. They consciously create a buffer.

- They themselves have declared that this is the answer to a visa-free regime, they say, to prevent terrorists’ movements from Europe. My version: these border zones are established in order to create additional pressure, such as smuggled goods from Belarus to Russia, which continues to actively flow, and to be able to push its interests in Belarus through force. I do not exclude even some cross-border provocations.

- That means that it is a pure element of political blackmail.

- Yes, this is an element of blackmail, I am not sure if we can call it political blackmail. I am afraid that there is something more dangerous.

- For example what?

- I'm saying that various provocations can be organized for certain purposes.

- Violations of the border? Intrusion into the border zone?

- I would not want to predict the scenarios that could happen. Just knowing what happened in Ukraine and how it ended, I do not want this to happen again here.

- How is the current situation in Belarus similar to the one that existed “on Ukraine” before the war?

- In Ukraine.

- After all, I'm a native speaker of the Russian language, I was taught at school to say “on Ukraine”.

- „In Ukraine” is correctly in Russian – after all we're not saying „on Estonia”.

- We will not argue about it, it's the same as discussing if Tallinn should be spelled with one or two „n”.

- Why not? For me it's important, it's an indicator of the attitude.

- It has nothing to do with the attitude, in my opinion.

- The situation in Belarus is completely different. It is at the same time similar and different. What is similar? The fact that Europe was trying to insist on carrying out some reforms through authoritarian dictators and stubbornly refused to notice the real situation and the forces that could really implement reforms and that were in need of support.

This concerns not only Belarus, where there was a dictator Lukashenka. They wanted to carry out reforms through him, and it ended with a bloody post-election crackdown in 2010. Through Yanukovych, they tried to bring Ukraine closer to the European Union, and it ended with the expulsion of Yanukovych, Maidan, and, unfortunately, dead people. Or the „Arab Spring”, when, through Mubarak and other dictators, they have tried to carry out reforms, or rather, insist on reforms, which also ended badly. This is a similarity. The difference is that there was no a dictatorship in Ukraine. Yanukovych did not have enough time for that. But dictatorship exists in Belarus. Therefore, the dependence of the state on the regime is much stronger than it was in Ukraine, and it is very dangerous today.

- Let us suppose that Lukashenka is gone. What will happen to the country?

- I hope that the transformation for the better will happen, because the system he built revolves around him. And he did everything so that no other figure appeared. They are lost in the shadow of grey. And I'll tell you more, that the opposition, democratic forces in general are prepared to hold these elections. Hopefully, after that, if it happens, we will be able to carry out serious democratic reforms.

- Unfortunately, our program is already coming to an end, so now it is the time for our short questions. What does the phrase „Belarussian miracle” mean for you?

- Nothing.

- So, such a concept doesn’t exist at all?

- If it denotes the economy, this so-called „miracle” led to the collapse. I would call it „Belarusian tragedy”.

- Is it right that Lukashenka for Belarus is worse than Yanukovich for Ukraine?

- Yes. Absolutely.

- Can power in Belarus have pro-Western government while Putin is in power in Russia?

- Let's not use labels „pro-Western”, „not pro-Western”. There must be a democratic Belarusian government.

- When will you come back to Belarus?

- I am ready to participate in fair elections.

- In presidential elections?

- Yes, including the presidential elections.